Friday 16 February 2007

Japanese economy ends 2006 on strong note, recent US and UK data weaker

From AFP/CNA:

Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.2 percent in the three months to December for an annualised pace of 4.8 percent, an eighth straight positive quarter and the strongest since early 2004, the government said.

This puts an interest rate hike by the BoJ next week back on the table. Significantly, private consumption grew 1.1 percent from the previous quarter. On the other hand, third quarter growth was revised down to 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter from 0.2 percent.

In the meantime, the data out from the US yesterday were mixed. Reuters reports that industrial production was weak in January, falling 0.5 percent, mainly due to the auto sector. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed's index on activity in the Mid-Atlantic region fell to 0.6 in February from 8.3 in January, although manufacturing activity in New York State improved in February. Weekly claims for jobless benefits jumped 44,000 to hit 357,000.

On the other hand, import prices fell 1.2 percent in January and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 40 in February from 35 in January.

Not surprising then that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress yesterday that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again if the economy proved stronger than expected and inflation moved higher.

But in the UK, past rate hikes may finally be having an effect on the economy as house price inflation eased to its slowest in seven months in January and retail sales fell at their sharpest rate in four years.

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