Wednesday 21 February 2007

BoE to hike again soon

That appears to be what the latest news reports are pointing to. From Reuters:

Inflation has been unusually low and stable over the last decade but this benign situation may not last, the Bank of England said on Monday.

In a report for parliament's Treasury Committee, the central bank also said that the current account will eventually have to move to balance and this would require a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate...

The BoE, which left interest rates steady this month after three rises since August, also noted that sharply rising asset prices could raise the risk of a future correction.

"In principle, policymakers should take account of this possibility and may therefore decide to raise interest rates and undershoot the inflation target in the near-term in order to increase the chances of meeting it further in the future," the report said.

Recent data have indicated some moderation in the housing market, for example, from this Reuters report:

Asking prices for homes rose an annual 11.5 percent this month, the weakest reading in four months, in a sign the market is stabilising amid higher borrowing costs.

Property Web site Rightmove said February's annual rate compared with a 13.5 percent rate in January and was the lowest since last October.

But lending data released yesterday suggest that more tightening may still be needed. From Reuters:

The British Bankers' Association said mortgage lending rose 5.6 billion pounds last month, compared with a downwardly revised 5.7 billion rise in December and similar to the robust average over the previous six months.

Furthermore, the Building Societies Association said seasonally adjusted approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made -- hit a record 5.949 billion pounds last month while net advances amounted to a 1.613 billion, a record for January...

Separately, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said gross mortgage lending hit an all-time January high of 26.8 billion pounds, although it cooled from December's 28.6 billion. "We expect this strength to continue over the next few months," said CML director general Michael Coogan...

Provisional figures on Tuesday showed annual broad money supply growth picked up to 13 percent last month from 12.8 percent in December...

Credit card lending fell for a sixth straight month. It was down 496 million pounds in January, according to the BBA, more than double the average fall of 219 million over the last six months.

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