Friday, 18 February 2005

Lack of bullish sentiment

Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture looks at the 10 Week Moving Average AAII Bullish Sentiment and quotes Kevin Lane as saying: "The fact that bullish sentiment has moderated, not expanded, on this recent move up in equities is a positive. It suggests to us investors are NOT totally complacent yet."

I had also mentioned this indicator -- as well as other sentiment indicators -- in my commentary "Will investors turn chicken in Year of the Rooster?".

Sentiment indicators are not perfect, but they are useful. The AAII indicator, for example, has recently peaked and troughed more or less in line with the market. So its current moderate level suggests that there is still life left in the bull.

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