Economists in Blue Chip survey see US economy slowing

According to estimates by economists polled in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, the US economy is expected to slow to 3.6 percent growth in 2005. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index will ease slightly to a 2.5 percent rate from last year's 2.7 percent rise, but prices excluding food and energy will continue to creep higher by 2.3 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year, up sharply from 1.8 percent in 2004. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate to between 3.5 to 3.75 percent by the end of 2005.

The Blue Chip newsletter expects consumer spending to continue to remain strong in 2005 and rise by 3.5 percent. It sees an average monthly employment growth of 190,000 jobs. Non-residential fixed investment growth is expected to slow to 8.8 percent this year, while the trade deficit is forecast at US$608.8 billion.