Wednesday 25 October 2006

Manufacturing momentum fading?

European industrial new orders were strong in August, rising 3.7 percent in the euro zone and 2.6 percent in the EU25.

The latest UK data, however, paint a different picture. From the CBI:

Momentum in the UK manufacturing sector faded over the past three months as overseas demand levelled out and the decline in domestic orders accelerated, according to the latest industrial trends survey from the CBI published today (Tuesday).

Consequently total orders fell slightly, confounding expectations of continued growth, and order book levels are seen as marginally below normal. Output growth, which in July had been expected to maintain the strong performance of the first half of the year, slowed considerably.

In the US, the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for October was also weak, falling to -2 from 9 in September, while the service sector grew at a slower pace in October.

We'll get a better picture of the health of manufacturing after Thursday's US durable goods orders and next week's global PMIs.

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