Thursday 5 October 2006

Diverging trends in Europe and US

The Reuters global wrapup probably says it all:

Growth in the global services sector slipped in September, reports showed on Wednesday, but investors expect monetary policy in Europe and the United States to follow separate paths in coming months.

The numbers:

The Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday said its non-manufacturing index fell to 52.9 in September from 57.0 in August. Economists had expected a smaller decline to 56.0...

In the euro zone, the RBS/NTC Research survey showed that services growth in the region slipped to a 10-month low in September... The euro zone services activity index fell to 56.7 from an upwardly revised 57.4, still well above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Economists had expected a stable reading of 57.0...

The All-Industry Output Index for September, issued on Wednesday by JPMorgan with several research and supply organizations, fell to 55.3 in September from 56.9, the weakest in a year. But like the ISM and RBS/NTC surveys, it remained above the 50 line that divides growth from contraction.

The global services PMI fell to 54.5 -- its lowest since September 2005 when the index was at 54.2 -- from 57.0.

US factory orders tell a similar story, although durable goods orders have been revised up. From another Reuters report:

New orders at U.S. factories were unchanged in August, a stronger showing than expected...

But after stripping out transportation orders, factory orders fell 0.7 percent in the month, the Commerce Department said...

Durable goods orders in August were upwardly revised to unchanged from the first estimate of a 0.5 percent drop...

But house prices continued to rise in the UK, albeit at a slower rate. From Reuters:

House prices rose a robust one percent last month, Halifax data shows, suggesting the property market has remained resilient in the wake of August's interest rate rise.

However, the annual rate of house price inflation eased for a third month to 8.0 percent in the three months to September on a year ago, its lowest rate since April and compared with 8.2 percent in August.

The British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index also rose at a slower rate in September.

Meanwhile, retail sales in the euro zone remained robust in August. AFX/Forbes reports:

The data slightly exceeded expectations with a rise of 0.7 pct from July and a year-on-year increase of 2.4 pct. Economists had forecast a month-on-month rise of 0.6 pct and an increase of 2.0 pct from a year earlier.

Equally, Eurostat revised July retail sales downwards to a month-on-month rise of 0.4 pct and an increase of 1.9 pct from a year earlier. Its original estimate was for 0.6 pct and 2.5 pct respectively.

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