Monday 4 November 2019

At record highs, “overvalued” US stocks at risk of “nasty correction”

The S&P 500 rose 1.5 percent last week to end at a record high.

Despite the latest run, Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch noted that the US stock market appears to have become slightly less overvalued since September 2018.

Hulbert said that while the price/earnings ratio for the market is slightly higher than in September 2018, “the majority of the other valuation indicators I monitor are slightly lower today”.

Still, Hulbert said that US stocks “remain more overvalued today than at almost every other bull market top of the past century”.

Even long-time bull and Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, seems to think that the market is getting too expensive.

In an interview with CNBC, Yardeni said that the S&P 500 forward earnings multiple is now 17. The historic norm is 15 to 16.

If the multiple reaches 19 or 20, Yardeni said that the market could experience a “nasty correction”.

Still, Yardeni remains bullish for the longer term and has a target of 3,500 for 2020.

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