China’s exports unexpectedly fell in August, according to a report on Sunday.
Chinese customs data showed that August exports fell 1 percent from a year earlier after having risen 3.3 percent in July.
Exports to the US fell 16 percent year-on-year, worse than the 6.5 percent decline in July.
China's imports fell 5.6 percent in August from the previous year, its fourth consecutive decline.
Steven Zhang, chief economist and head of research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, attributed the sharp decline in exports to the US to the China-US trade war.
“The global economy is approaching the turning point of a recession, and external demand will for sure become worse and worse,” he said.
Indeed, the chance of a recession in the US over the next 12 months climbed to 38 percent in August, according to a New York Federal Reserve model based on the US Treasury yield curve.
“Anything over 30% is very bad,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.
“Trade policy represents the No. 1 risk. If things continue to escalate, that poses a real threat to the business cycle,” said James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments.
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