US recession fears have faded but “the business cycle’s not dead”

The Economist noted last week that fears of a recession in the US have faded.

It noted that the probability of a recession within 12 months based on a model from economists at JPMorgan Chase had fallen from 65 percent at the end of last year to 15 percent on 29 April.

“It’s eye-popping how quickly the narrative has changed,” the article quoted Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank as saying.

One analyst whose narrative has not changed, though, is Gluskin Sheff chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg.

In an interview with CNBC last week, Rosenberg said that “what investors have to know is that the business cycle’s not dead and that a recession is out there probably sooner rather than later”.