Thursday, 28 February 2019

Markets mixed, face another “abrupt” downward leg

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 dipped less than 0.1 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.3 percent.

However, earlier earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.5 percent and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4 percent.

Markets were little-moved by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's testimony to Congress that the US plans to officially abandon an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods.

“Trade policy, for better or worse, is what traders are paying attention to,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at RW Baird.

However, Octavio ‘Tavi’ Costa, Crescat Capital global macro analyst, thinks that a bear market for stocks has already started.

“In our view, September of 2018 marked the peak of the U.S. economic cycle. We are now seeing a typical bear market rally, and the next downward leg is likely to be just as abrupt as the first one,” said Costa.

European investors are not much more optimistic. According to a survey of over 30 brokers, fund managers and analysts taken 12-25 February, the STOXX Europe 600 is expected to end the year at 371, or nearly unchanged from current levels.

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