Thursday, 7 March 2013

US economic data show growth, ECRI sees recession

The US economy grew at a "modest to moderate pace" last month, the Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book on Wednesday.

Other economic reports on Wednesday appear to confirm the Fed report. ADP reported that private employers added 198,000 jobs in February. The Commerce Department reported that factory orders fell 2 percent in January as orders for transportation equipment plunged. However, excluding transportation, orders rose 1.3 percent.

Despite the generally positive data on the US economy, the Economic Cycle Research Institute's Lakshman Achuthan says that the economic conditions are actually recessionary.

We are now in the Yo-Yo Years as described by ECRI early last year. Meanwhile, even though some economic data seems stronger on the surface, U.S. Nominal GDP growth is recessionary and we are below a "stall speed" measure highlighted by the Fed. And this isn't the first time the stock market has risen through a recession.

See the full report from ECRI.

Meanwhile, there is no doubt that the euro area is in recession. A report by Eurostat on Wednesday confirmed that the eurozone economy contracted 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, the biggest quarter-on-quarter fall in a year of contraction.

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