Saturday 22 October 2011

Business confidence falls in Germany and France, private Greek debt holders face bigger haircut

Business confidence in the two largest eurozone economies deteriorated in October.

In Germany, the Ifo business climate index fell to 106.4 in October from 107.4 in September. It was the fourth consecutive decline and left the index at a 16-month low.

In France, Insee's index of sentiment among business leaders in the manufacturing sector fell to 97 in October from 99 in September. The overall index fell to 95 from 96.

Investors' confidence, however, has been relatively better in recent days. Stocks rose on Friday, the S&P 500 rising 1.9 percent to close at the highest level since 3 August while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.5 percent.

However, Europe's debt problems are far from over. Reuters reports the latest developments on Greece's debt crisis.

Euro zone finance ministers threw Greece a lifeline on Friday by agreeing to approve an 8 billion euro loan tranche that Athens needs next month to pay its bills.

But the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund -- the so-called troika -- issued a gloomy report on Greece's ability to pay its debts.

Among three scenarios it examined, the only one that would reduce Greece's debt pile to 110 percent of GDP -- a level still regarded as high -- was one in which private bond holders agreed to a 60 percent haircut.

And problems could spread to other eurozone economies. Again from Reuters:

Standard & Poor's will likely lower the credit standing of five European nations, including top-rated France, by one or two notches if the region slips into recession and government borrowings increase, the rating agency said in a report...

A worst-case economic scenario would also likely prompt the recapitalization of numerous banks in Spain, Italy, and Portugal, S&P said, adding that current support mechanisms may not be sufficient if conditions deteriorate beyond expectations.

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