Saturday 26 June 2010

US economy to slow despite higher consumer confidence

US first quarter GDP growth has been revised down. Reuters reports:

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.7 percent annual rate instead of the 3 percent pace reported last month, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate on Friday...

The new softer reading for the January-March period reflected a downward revision to growth in consumer spending, which the department said rose at a 3 percent clip, not the 3.5 percent it had thought a month ago.

On a more positive note, consumer confidence improved in June.

Despite the tepid recovery, consumers are gradually feeling more confident in the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 76 in June, its highest since January 2008, from 73.6 last month. Economists had expected a reading of 75.5.

Notwithstanding the improved consumer confidence, slower growth is looking increasingly likely for the US economy after the ECRI Weekly Leading Index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 6.9 percent in the week ended 18 June from minus 5.8 percent the week before despite the index itself rising to 122.9 from 122.4. From Reuters:

"After falling for six weeks, the uptick in the level of the Weekly Leading Index suggests some tentative stabilization, but the continuing decline in its growth rate to a 56-week low underscores the inevitability of the slowdown," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

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