Friday, 20 November 2009

OECD raises growth forecast

The OECD has raised its economic growth forecast for its members. From Bloomberg on Thursday:

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development doubled its growth forecast for the leading developed economies next year and predicted a further acceleration in 2011 as China powers a global recovery.

The economy of the group’s 30 member countries will expand 1.9 percent next year and 2.5 percent in 2011, the Paris-based organization said in a report today. Output will contract 3.5 percent this year. The OECD, which advises members on economic policy, forecast 2010 growth of 0.7 percent in June...

The U.S. economy will grow 2.5 percent in 2010 instead of the 0.9 percent predicted in June and the euro region will advance 0.9 percent instead of a projection it would stagnate, the OECD said. Japan will post growth of 1.8 percent instead of 0.7 percent. The forecast for China was raised to 10.2 percent.

US economic data on Thursday were also quite positive. Bloomberg reports:

The U.S. economic recovery will extend into next year as manufacturing expands and the pace of firings abates, reports today indicated.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.3 percent in October, preserving a string of gains that began in April...

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits held at 505,000 in the week ended Nov. 14, matching the prior week’s reading as the lowest since January. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments jumped...

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in November at the fastest pace in more than two years, reflecting gains in orders and sales, figures from the Fed Bank of Philadelphia also showed today.

The bank’s general economic index rose to 16.7 this month, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed and the highest level since June 2007, from 11.5 in October. Readings greater than zero signal growth.

However, the positive economic reports were not matched by the stock market's performance.

Stocks extended a global drop as concern grew that the rally outpaced the prospects for economic growth and Bank of America Corp. downgraded chipmakers. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.3 percent to close at 1,094.9, with Intel Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. losing ground.

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