Wednesday 1 July 2009

Japanese employment falls but Tankan survey shows improvement

Japan's economy may have gotten better lately but the improvement has not been as rapid or as broad-based as some may have hoped. From Reuters on Tuesday:

Japan's jobless rate rose to a new 5-1/2-year high in May and job availability sank to a record low, fuelling worries that bleak job conditions may overwhelm government efforts to boost consumption, delaying an economic recovery...

The number of employed people fell by 1.36 million from a year earlier, a record rate, as manufacturers and the service sector cut staff even as the country's export industries start to recover from a sharp downturn in the global economy...

Household spending rose 0.3 percent in May from a year earlier, beating market expectations for a decline of 1.6 percent...

With job conditions deteriorating, housing starts fell 30.8 percent in May from a year earlier to a level last seen in 1966, marking the sixth straight month of annual declines.

Orders received by construction firms in May fell a record 41.9 percent from a year earlier to 454.8 billion yen ($4.74 billion), the lowest monthly amount on record...

The Nomura/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 48.2 in June, with both output and export components of the index edging above the 50 marks that separate contraction from expansion for the first time since 2008.

And today from AFP/CNA:

Business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers has improved for the first time in two-and-a-half years, the central bank's quarterly Tankan survey showed Wednesday.

The sentiment index rose to minus 48 in June from a record low of minus 58 in March. Market forecasts had been for a figure of about minus 43.

The increase was the biggest since June 2002, when the index jumped 20 points. It was the first improvement since December 2006, adding to hopes that the recession is easing...

Experts say a full-fledged recovery is unlikely in Japan until demand picks up in major overseas markets such as the United States and Europe.

A sustained pick-up in demand in the US is still not a certainty though. From Bloomberg:

The home-price slide eased in April, underscoring signs the U.S. economy began to stabilize in the second quarter, while a drop in consumer confidence this month warned of a muted recovery...

Real-estate values in 20 major cities decreased 18.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the smallest decline in six months, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released today from New York.

The Conference Board’s confidence gauge decreased to 49.3 from a revised 54.8 in May, the New York-based research group said. The figure was still above a record low of 25.3 reached in February...

Another report from the Institute for Supply Management- Chicago Inc. showed its business barometer climbed to 39.9 in June, the second-highest level in the last nine months.

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