Wednesday 25 June 2008

Confidence deteriorates in Europe and US

Bloomberg reports a deterioration in confidence in the euro area.

Consumer confidence in Germany and Italy dimmed as soaring energy prices sapped households' purchasing power, adding to evidence that economic growth is faltering across the euro region.

GfK AG's index for July, based on a survey of about 2,000 Germans, fell to 3.9 from a revised 4.7 in June, the Nuremberg- based market-research company said today. That's the lowest in more than two years. Italy's Isae Institute's index slipped to 100 from 103.2 this month. In France, housing starts slumped and business confidence held at the weakest since December 2005.

Reuters reports similar deterioration in the US.

The Conference Board's monthly survey of consumers showed the overall index of consumers' mood fell to 50.4 in June, the lowest since 47.3 in February 1992.

Inflation appears to be a big factor.

In addition, the survey showed an index measuring consumer expectations for the future sank to a record low as inflation forecasts matched an all-time high this month.

The inflation threat has been highlighted in the past 24 hours by massive price increases announced by some of the world's largest basic materials conglomerates.

At the same time, however, house prices in the US are moving in the opposite direction.

U.S. home prices in April, meantime, extended their record annual slump in April although the pace of decline subsided a bit in the month, according to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller data.

S&P's 20-city index for April posted a smaller-than-expected 1.4 percent drop from March, but it also slumped by a record 15.3 percent annually and by 17.8 percent since hitting its peak in July 2006.

By another measure, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which gauges prices based on relatively low risk loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said its home price index fell 0.8 percent in April from March for a 4.6 percent annual downturn.

The UK housing market appears to be following in the same footsteps, with house prices cooling, home sales falling and home loan approvals diving.

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