Wednesday 12 July 2006

Global economic data show slower growth, higher inflation

If the outlook for consumer spending is not too rosy in the United States, it looks little better elsewhere.

The UK saw retail sales growth slow in June.

The BRC said like-for-like sales rose by 2.3 percent in June compared with a year ago, down from 3.6 percent in May and the weakest since a decline of 1.4 percent in March.

Total sales, which include new floor space, also grew less than the previous month, up 4.7 percent after May's 6.2 percent -- that too the weakest reading since March...

Still, the BRC said the three-month underlying trend rate showed total sales rose a solid 6.8 percent on the year, the strongest since October 2002, while like-for-like sales were 4.1 percent higher, the strongest since August 2002.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence in Japan fell in June while confidence in China fell in the second quarter.

Unlike the Asian economies, however, Britain does not get as much relief from export growth; its goods trade gap widened in May. Reuters reports:

The Office for National Statistics said the goods trade gap widened to 6.753 billion pounds in May from a downwardly revised 5.568 billion in April...

Oil accounted for around half of the deterioration...

Total goods imports rose 3.9 percent to hit a new record of 27.947 billion pounds, driven by higher imports of cars, capital goods and aircraft. Exports, meanwhile, dipped 0.6 percent. The ONS said its estimate of the trend was that the gap was widening...

Britain had a 2.335 billion pound surplus in the trade in services, up from 2.141 billion in April, taking the total trade deficit to 4.418 billion pounds from 3.427 billion the previous month.

Some positive news yesterday came from Canada, where new home construction picked up by 4.5 percent in June. However, construction activity was expected to moderate in the second half of the year. Expectations of a general economic slowdown led the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25 percent yesterday.

Even as signs of economic weakness appear around the globe though, let's not forget that inflation is still a major global concern. Germany's Federal Statistical Office reported yesterday that its wholesale price index rose by 0.5 percent in June from the previous month and by 5.3 percent from a year earlier, the highest year-on-year rate since November 2000.

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