Wednesday 31 May 2006

Euro-zone lending up, US consumer confidence down

Is the ECB falling behind the curve? From FT:

Eurozone lending to the private sector grew faster last month than at any time since the euro’s launch in 1999, presaging another rise in European Central Bank interest rates next month, possibly by a larger-than-usual half percentage point.

Loans to the private sector saw an annual growth rate of 11.3 per cent in April, the ECB said on Tuesday, up from 10.8 per cent in March. Economists had to refer to reconstructed data for 1989, assuming that the eurozone had existed then, to find a faster growth rate...

Unlike other central banks, the ECB puts an emphasis on money supply figures as long-term inflation indicators. Tuesday’s data showed M3, the broad money supply measure, rising at an annual rate of 8.8 per cent in April, up from 8.5 per cent in March, and the highest since April 2003.

Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell in May. From Reuters:

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a three-month low in May, weighed down by concerns over rising gasoline prices and diminished optimism about the economy, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment slipped to 103.2 in May from an upwardly revised April reading of 109.8, which was a four-year high.

May's reading, however, was above the 101.1 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.

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