Saturday 1 April 2006

US consumer spending and confidence rise, European confidence boosted by manufacturers

US consumer spending continued to increase in February. Reuters reports:

The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.1 percent in February, above market expectations for an unchanged reading after January's warm-weather shopping spree boosted spending by 0.8 percent. Personal income climbed 0.3 percent, just below Wall Street forecasts for a 0.4 percent rise.

Inflation slowed. The price index for consumer spending was up 2.9 percent in February from a year earlier, slowing from January's 3.1 percent increase. When volatile food and energy costs are stripped out, the increase in the so-called core PCE price index -- the inflation gauge favored by the Fed -- was steady at a 1.8 percent...

The saving rate was negative for the fourth straight month, at minus 0.5 percent...

A report by the University of Michigan suggested spending may continue, with its final March index of consumer sentiment rising to 88.9 from 86.7 in February...

And manufacturing continued to expand as well.

... The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 60.4 from 54.9 in February, above forecasts for an increase to 57.0.

But the Commerce Department said new orders at U.S. factories rose a smaller-than-expected 0.2 percent in February, as robust civilian aircraft and defense capital goods orders outweighed declining demand for primary and fabricated metals, machinery and electrical equipment.

Europe also saw confidence on the whole rise in March, reports Bloomberg.

An index of economic sentiment among households and companies in the 12 nations using the euro increased to 103.5, the highest since June 2001, from 102.7 in February, the European Commission said in Brussels today. Consumer prices rose 2.2 percent in March from a year ago, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today.

Growing confidence and inflation above the ECB's target of just below 2 percent prompted investors to increase bets the ECB will raise rates three more times this year. At least seven banks, including Barclays Capital and JPMorgan Chase & Co., have this month lifted their forecasts for the ECB's benchmark rate...

Manufacturers were the most optimistic since February 2001 this month, the report showed... Still, in a sign the European economy remains fragile, sentiment among consumers slipped from February's four-year high due to concerns about hiring, the commission said.

Retail sales in Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell for a first month in three in February, reflecting concerns about higher energy costs and companies' reluctance to hire more workers. Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, slipped 0.6 percent after rising a revised 1.9 percent in January, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today...

France's economy, the region's second largest, expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter, led by rising exports and domestic expending, the Paris-based statistics office said today. Gross domestic product grew 0.4 percent from the third quarter instead of the 0.2 percent initially reported.

Like their continental counterparts, UK consumers became more pessimistic in March.

Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in March as people became more pessimistic about both their personal finances and the economic outlook, a survey showed on Friday.

GfK NOP's monthly consumer confidence barometer slipped to -7 this month, when Chancellor Gordon Brown presented his annual budget, from -4 in February.

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