Tuesday 14 February 2006

China's trade surplus and Japan's current account surplus grow, UK leading index unchanged

While the US trade deficit grows, the Chinese trade surplus is moving in the opposite direction.

China's trade surplus rose 46.7 percent in January year-on-year to 9.49 billion dollars.

Imports for the month totalled 55.5 billion dollars, up 25.4 percent, while exports rose 28.1 percent to 64.9 billion dollars, the Ministry of Commerce reported on its website.

Japan's trade surplus is not growing, but its current account surplus is.

Japan's current account surplus expands in December for a fourth straight month, the finance ministry said, as exports rose on the back of strong demand from China and the United States.

The current account surplus grew 8.6 percent from a year earlier to 1.75 trillion yen (US$14.8 billion), beating market expectations for a surplus of about 1.6 trillion yen.

The trade surplus alone fell 16.7 percent in December to 1.06 trillion yen, with imports jumping 30.4 percent to 5.02 trillion yen as exports rose 18.7 percent to 6.08 trillion yen.

This was in a month that saw Japanese industrial production grow a seasonally-adjusted 1.3 percent, according to revised data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Why are the global trade imbalances so persistent? Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley and Chris P. Dialynas of PIMCO provide reasons.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's leading index for the UK was unchanged in December, which "suggests that economic growth should remain slow to moderate in the near term".

However, mixed signals from producer prices means inflation concerns will not dissipate so soon.

The Office for National Statistics said on Monday output prices rose 0.4 percent on the month, taking the annual rate of increase to 2.9 percent from 2.4 percent in December and compared with a forecast of 2.7 percent.

That was the highest since September and mainly reflected dearer petrol and diesel following sharp price rises in crude oil...

Output price inflation excluding the volatile items food, drink, tobacco and petrol products fell to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent in December.

But that was countered by a bigger than expected rise in factories' raw material costs.

Input prices rose by 1.8 percent in January on the month and by 15.4 percent on the year. The annual pace was the second fastest since comparable records began in 1991 after a high of 18.3 percent in December.

And UK house prices continue to recover.

House price inflation picked up to 2.9 percent in the year to December 2005, from 2.2 percent in November, the government said on Monday -- further evidence of a gradual recovery in the property market.

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