Tuesday 13 December 2005

Good news for Japan, mixed for the UK, Chinese M2 surges

There is yet more good news for Japan. The October current account surplus was up, according to AFP/CNA:

Japan's current account surplus rose 2.6 percent in October from a year earlier as a surge in investment income more than offset a shrinking trade surplus, the finance ministry said. The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, rose for a second straight month to hit 1.38 trillion yen...

The trade surplus alone, however, tumbled 29.2 percent to 939.1 billion yen for a 12th consecutive monthly decline, the ministry said. Imports were up 20.8 percent to 4.69 trillion yen while exports rose 8.0 percent to 5.63 trillion yen...

The income account posted a surplus of 855.2 billion yen, rising 44 percent from a year earlier, spurred by sharp increases in portfolio and dividend income.

And Bloomberg reports that households are less pessimistic:

Japan's households became less pessimistic in November for a second straight month as wages rose and job prospects improved, adding to signs that consumer spending will help sustain growth in the fourth quarter.

Confidence among households with two or more people rose to 48.2 from 47.9 in October, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. A reading below 50 means pessimists outnumber optimists. Overall consumer sentiment, which includes single households, also rose to 48.2 from 47.9 in October, according to the report.

In the UK, the economic indicators reported yesterday were more mixed. Reuters reports that asking prices for homes fell in December but could turn around next year:

Average asking prices on a home fell in December, as sellers cut their prices to book a sale before Christmas, but house price growth is set to pick up in 2006, according to a report on Monday.

Property Web site Rightmove said house prices fell by 0.8 percent in its November 13 to December 3 survey compared with the previous period, taking the average asking price down to 196,181 pounds from 197,855 pounds in the previous survey.

... Rightmove said stable economic growth should support demand and drive house price inflation to around 4.0 percent in 2006, pushing average asking prices above 200,000 pounds.

Reuters also reports that a survey sees consumer services business picking up:

A quarterly survey of consumer services by the Confederation of British Industry and accountancy firm Grant Thornton, showed business volumes are expected to rise in the next three months, with a balance of +19 after a reading of 0 in the August survey.

...but another survey sees negative expectations for manufacturing:

The Confederation of British Industry said its monthly manufacturing order books balance rose to a five-month high of -22 in December after -25 in November and against analysts' forecasts for only a slight improvement to -24...

The CBI said manufacturers' expectations of future output remained modestly negative, with that balance unchanged at -4.

And factory gate inflation for November also left a mixed picture.

Factory gate inflation slowed to its weakest rate in over a year and a half, according to official data on Monday that should ease concerns of inflationary pressures building in the supply chain.

The Office for National Statistics said output prices fell 0.2 percent on the month in November as petrol prices fell taking the annual rate down to a slower than expected 2.3 percent...

However, Monday's data also showed input prices unexpectedly rose in November by 1.4 percent, taking the annual rate to 12.5 percent compared to analysts' forecast for an annual rate of 9.2 percent.

And speaking of inflation, to add to yesterday's post on China's inflation, FXstreet.com reports that China's M2 surged in November:

China's broad M2 money supply rose 18.3 pct year-on-year to 29.24 trln yuan at the end of November, the highest growth rate since April last year, the People's Bank of China said

In a statement posted on its website, the central bank said the narrower M1 money supply rose 12.7 pct year-on-year to 10.41 trln yuan, with M0, a measure of the cash in circulation, up 10.9 pct at 2.24 trln yuan

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