Saturday 22 October 2005

UK economy, Japanese services and prices in China

Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics reported that the UK economy grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter after gaining 0.5 percent in the prior quarter. The annual rate of expansion was 1.6 percent. As Bloomberg reports, this puts the economy "on pace for its slowest annual expansion in 13 years" and "marks the ebbing of a 12-year expansion, the longest in 200 years".

On the other hand, the expansion in Japan seems to be getting into stride.

Japan's service industries expanded nearly twice as much as expected in August, led by retailers and technology consultants, suggesting the nation may be headed for the longest period of expansion in eight years.

The tertiary index rose 1.7 percent to match a record at 107.5, according to the trade ministry today. The median estimate of 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a gain of 0.9 percent.

Meanwhile, in China, inflation continued to moderate in September, with the consumer price index rising 0.9 percent according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Government control of energy prices no doubt helped.

There has apparently also been a cooling in the Chinese property market.

China's hottest property market Shanghai may be cooling after the nation's biggest city recorded a 1.2 percent dip in prices in September. At the same time the average price of housing in 70 Chinese cities went up 0.6 percent from a month earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said... National urban house prices rose eight percent year-on-year in the second quarter, 1.8 percentage points less than in the January to March period.

But risks remain.

[A] report by the Oriental Morning Post, citing the Ministry of Commerce, warned of a clear overheating problem throughout most of the country... After an investigation...the ministry concluded that the current pace of investment conceals massive financial risks, with 50 percent of the financing tied to bank loans.

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