Another look at US employment

Barry Ritholtz points to this insightful commentary from Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust. Excerpt:

... The 274,000 reported increase in April nonfarm payrolls led many analysts to conclude that the first quarter slowdown in economic growth was just a temporary "soft patch." The monthly Employment Situation report is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)...

... [T]he Employment and Training Administration (ETA)...brings us the initial and continuing state unemployment claims data on Thursday mornings. The ETA has been publishing data of late suggesting that the labor market is cooling off and that the economy is too...

[W]e trust initial jobless claims over nonfarm payrolls to tell us where the economy is going for three reasons. Firstly, claims tend to get revised less radically than do nonfarm payrolls. Secondly, claims lead payrolls. Thirdly, claims lead measures of economic activity whereas nonfarm payrolls lag or, at best, are coincident with measures of economic activity...

But when I look at his charts, I am still not convinced that this isn't just a soft patch. Maybe I'm too skeptical.

Meanwhile, PGL and William Polley look at the effect of demographics on the employment to population ratio. Also note the comments, especially at PGL's post.

And as if all that is not enough, human resource management is also changing -- see for example "IBM's Supply Chain for Deploying People" -- which should also affect employment trends and the economy.