US job growth and other data reinforce slowdown expectations

Obviously, the big news yesterday was the US nonfarm payroll. Reuters reports the numbers:

U.S. employers added a fewer-than-expected 113,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate jumped unexpectedly to 4.8 percent, confirming a slowing economy and igniting hopes for an interest-rate pause by the Federal Reserve...

Still, average hourly earnings increased 7 cents for a second straight month to $16.76 in July, a 0.4 percent increase, the same as in June. In the year through July, average hourly earnings rose 3.8 percent, down slightly from the 3.9 percent year-over-year gain posted in June...

[M]anufacturers shed 15,000 jobs last month after adding 22,000 in June and goods-producing businesses overall cut 2,000 jobs after adding 23,000 in June...

In July, construction businesses added 6,000 jobs but that followed back-to-back job reductions of 4,000 in May and June.

Service industries continued to be the mainstay of job creation, adding 115,000 jobs in July after 101,000 in June.

Among econ bloggers, James Hamilton thinks that the report settles the argument that the Fed will pause next week, but William Polley is not so confident it does.

But the latest OECD composite leading indicators do reinforce expectations for a slowdown.

The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.1 point in June to 109.7 from 109.8 in May, and its six-month rate of change was down for the third consecutive month.

The CLI for the United States fell by 0.2 point in June, and its six-month rate of change was down for the fourth consecutive month. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.2 point in June, but its six-month rate of change decreased for the first time since May 2005. In June, the CLI for Japan decreased by 0.9 point with its six-month rate of change showing a downward trend since March 2006.

And data on German manufacturing orders appear to confirm the trend. From Bloomberg:

German manufacturing orders unexpectedly fell for a second month in June, led by a drop in domestic sales of factory machinery and consumer goods.

Orders declined 0.5 percent from May, when they fell a revised 1.5 percent, the Economy and Technology Ministry in Berlin said in a faxed statement today. Economists expected an increase of 1.3 percent, the median of 38 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. From a year ago, orders rose 0.8 percent.