Tuesday 14 March 2006

Yellen warns of overshooting by Fed, UK prices continue to rise

Janet Yellen, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, had this to say to reporters after her speech to the National Association for Business Economics: "I think we're in a range where Fed decisions have become quite data-dependent and there does need to be sensitivity to the possibility of overshooting."

Not too hawkish there. For her conference speech itself, see this Reuters report.

Overshooting would be bad for economic growth, but a premature end to tightening would leave inflation untamed, which may be what we are seeing in the UK, where inflation has proven surprisingly persistent, especially in house prices:

UK house prices are accelerating, according to figures from the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM).

Its latest monthly survey of new mortgage loans shows that prices rose by 4.3% in the year to January.

That was higher than the 2.9% rate recorded in December and is the highest since the middle of last year.

However, UK producer prices held steady in February:

The Office for National Statistics said on Monday that output price inflation held steady at an annual rate of 2.9 percent even though manufacturers' raw material costs did not rise last month for the first time in five months.

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