Thursday 30 March 2006

German consumer confidence high, Japanese retail sales fall, worrying data from UK

There was no major economic news from the US yesterday, but plenty elsewhere.

In Germany consumer confidence is high.

GfK's confidence index, based on a March survey of about 2,000 people that aims to forecast household spending one month ahead, climbed to 5.1, the highest since December 2001, from 5.0 in the previous month, the market-research company said in an e-mailed statement today. Households also became more optimistic about spending money in coming months, the survey showed.

Meanwhile, Japanese retail sales fell in February, but by less than expected. Bloomberg reports:

Retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent from January, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tokyo today. That was less than the median forecast for a 2 percent drop in a Bloomberg survey of 5 economists. Sales from a year earlier rose 1.0 percent, beating a median 0.8 percent forecast of 21 economists surveyed.

There was plenty of news from the UK yesterday, mostly negative. From Reuters:

Britain posted its biggest current account deficit in six years in 2005... official figures on Wednesday showed the current account gap in the fourth quarter alone was nearly double expectations at 11 billion pounds, or 3.6 percent of gross domestic product.

That left the deficit for the year as a whole at a record 31.9 billion pounds or 2.6 percent of output, the highest such ratio since 1999.

GDP growth in the fourth quarter was unrevised at 0.6 percent in final data but the figures showed a big drop in the saving ratio to 4.8 percent as consumers financed spending while their incomes remained static...

The Confederation of British Industry's monthly retail survey, also out on Wednesday...showed sales volumes falling at a much sharper than expected pace as cold weather kept shoppers away...

Adding to Wednesday's gloom, the Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals, a leading indicator of the housing market, fell for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years in February.

The loan agreements fell to 115,000 from 121,000 in January while mortgage lending rose by 8 billion pounds, nearly a billion less than expected, in a possible sign that the housing market recovery is losing steam.

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