Friday 10 March 2006

BOJ ends ultra-loose policy, US trade deficit hits record

The Bank of Japan's decision yesterday could potentially be a momentous one, although we probably will not know for sure for a while. Reuters reports:

The Bank of Japan scrapped a five-year-old experiment with ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and returned to a more conventional regime, but said it would still keep short-term interest rates around zero for now.

Recent strong economic data from Japan, including a rise in the leading index to 85.0 in January from a 75.0 in December, sealed the move.

Another important news yesterday was the record US trade deficit. Again from Reuters:

The U.S. trade deficit swelled to a record $68.5 billion in January, as the world's largest economy's ravenous appetite for foreign goods hit new heights and overpowered record exports, a government report showed on Thursday.

The monthly trade gap widened 5.3 percent from a revised estimate of $65.1 billion in December and surprised Wall Street analysts who had forecast less of a surge...

U.S. imports rose 3.5 percent in January to a new high of $182.9 billion... High prices for imported oil, which increased more than 4 percent in January to an average of $51.93 per barrel, helped push the trade gap to a new high... Many analysts, however, focused on the trade gap for non-petroleum goods, which posted a record $49.6 billion...

In a sign of improved economic growth overseas, U.S. exports increased in January to a record $114.4 billion, up 2.5 percent from the previous month...

In contrast, the UK's trade deficit narrowed in January. From AFX/Forbes

The office for National Statistics revealed that the trade in goods deficit in January narrowed to 5.73 bln stg from 6.1 bln stg the previous month. The latest figure is the narrowest since October when a deficit of 5.1 bln stg was recorded...

Total exports in Jan rose 0.6 pct from the previous month to 18.8 bln stg while imports slipped 1.1 pct to 24.5 bln stg.

Also in the UK, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged yesterday. From Reuters:

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 4.5 percent for the seventh month running on Thursday and expectations of a cut in borrowing costs this year are waning...

News...of rising house prices, the services economy expanding at the strongest pace in nearly two years and even manufacturing output rising three months running has raised doubts about whether the economy needs a monetary boost.

House prices jumped by 1.4 percent in February, their biggest gain in six months, according to the Halifax survey, while industrial output rose by 0.4 percent in January and manufacturing output rose by 0.2 percent.

On a negative note, German industrial production fell 0.1 percent in January, led by a drop in construction amid unusually cold weather. Manufacturing output, however, rose 1.3 percent in January, while December industrial output was revised to a 0.7 percent increase from an initially-reported 0.5 percent decline.

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