Markets mixed, US seeing “unrelenting spread” of COVID-19

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.4 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.7 percent but the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4 perecnt.

Pfizer released the final data on its vaccine candidate with BioNTech, which showed the vaccine was 95 percent effective in preventing Covid-19, better than the initial data, and fended off severe infection.

Still, the continuing surge in COVID-19 cases in the US remained a concern for investors, as deaths from the virus passed 250,000 on Wednesday.

“This is the worst rate of rise in cases that we have seen in the pandemic in the United States,” said Dr Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health. “And, right now, there's no sign of flattening.”

Indeed, all 50 states plus Washington, DC, the US Virgin Islands and Guam reported increases in coronavirus cases on Wednesday over the past 14 days.

The White House coronavirus task force stated in its latest weekly report that there is “now aggressive, unrelenting, expanding broad community spread across the country, reaching most counties, without evidence of improvement but rather, further deterioration”.

Markets fall, euro zone faces double-dip recession

Markets mostly fell on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.2 percent.

Earlier in Asia, markets were mixed. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.4 percent but the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2 percent.

“Euphoria is understandable, but unsustainable,” strategists at French bank Societe Generale wrote in a note. “The surge of COVID cases in the US and Europe’s second lockdown guarantee global economic weakness for several more months.”

Similarly, Felicity Emmett, a senior economist at ANZ, wrote in a Tuesday note that “the current virus surge is stifling near-term growth prospects”.

Indeed, a Reuters poll showed that economists think that the euro zone is on track for a double-dip recession.

Markets rise as another prospective COVID-19 vaccine reported

Markets rose on Monday.

The S&P 500 and the STOXX Europe 600 both rose 1.2 percent while the Nikkei 225 surged 2.1 percent.

Oil rose, with US crude rising 3.0 percent and Brent gaining 2.4 percent.

Markets were boosted after Moderna said its prospective vaccine was 94.5 percent effective in preventing COVID-19.

Still, with increasingly strict limits on social gatherings and commercial activity being announced in the US recently, Andrew Mies, chief investment officer at 6 Meridien, said: “You are definitely going to see the economy have another dip, another weak spot, and they are going to have to address that with extended unemployment because a lot of people are out of work and aren’t going to see any income coming in.”

S&P 500 and US COVID-19 set record highs

The S&P 500 rose 2.2 percent to a record high last week even as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to rampage across the US.

According to data from John Hopkins University, the US surpassed 11 million COVID-19 cases on Sunday. It set a new record-high number of patients hospitalised with the disease on Saturday.

"We are in the worst moment of this pandemic to date. The situation has never been more dire," Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said on Sunday in announcing new restrictions, one of several states to do so in recent days.

Expectations for the release of a vaccine soon kept the stock market rally going though after Pfizer reported early last week that their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in preventing the disease.

While a vaccine could indeed help the economy recover, experts cautioned that it may take a while for it to actually become available.

And then there is the view of Bank of America that investors should actually sell upon the vaccine’s availability.

"We are sellers-into-strength into vaccine [rollout] in coming months," it said on Friday.

S&P 500 hits record high amid new COVID-19 restrictions

Markets were mixed on Friday.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.4 percent to close at a record high but the STOXX Europe 600 was flat and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.9 percent.

“This week’s positive vaccine news is a game-changer in our view, as it allows the market to look through the recent surge in COVID-19 cases to the impending end of the pandemic and broader reopening of the economy,” wrote Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy.

Indeed, stocks rose in the US even as new restrictions are being imposed to suppress the spread of COVID-19.

“We are in a life-or-death situation, and if we don’t act right now, we cannot preserve the lives, we can’t keep saving lives, and we will absolutely crush our current health care system and infrastructure,” Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico said in imposing a two-week stay-at-home order.

Oregon Governor Kate Brown ordered a two-week “freeze” starting Wednesday, under which all businesses will be required to close their offices to the public and mandate work-from-home “to the greatest extent possible.”

However, with deaths from COVID-19 having climbed to about 1,000 a day on average and projected to reach nearly 439,000 by 1 Mar, Dr Michael Fine, former director of Rhode Island’s Health Department, said: “Short of very profound lockdowns, I don’t think we have a chance of slowing the spread.”

Markets fall as recovery enters “challenging” months

Markets were mostly lower on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.0 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.9 percent.

Earlier in Asia, markets were mixed. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.7 percent but the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.1 percent.

“The sell-off globally is being driven by the sharp spike in new coronavirus cases,” said Oliver Pursche, president of Bronson Meadows Capital Management.

Indeed, some economists think the US economy may already be taking a turn for the worse.

Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said that its broad index of the recovery “is reeling” after declining for four consecutive weeks.

Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that while he still sees the US recovery on a “solid path”, he acknowledged that “the next few months could be challenging”.

Markets rise, “very cavalier” about COVID-19 risk

Markets rose on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.1 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 1.8 percent.

While the latest rally in stocks was sparked by Pfizer and BioNTech’s announcement that their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90 effective, Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, cautioned that the vaccine will not result in an “instant stimulus” to the US economy.

“On the employment front, we still have 10 million Americans that were working in January that are not working today. And those that remain unemployed are seeing a much longer track back to full employment, so they will continue to need a certain amount of support,” said Tannenbaum.

Indeed, CNBC’s Jim Cramer remains concerned about COVID-19.

“I think this market’s being very cavalier about the fact that we’re running at more than 130,000 new cases per day,” he said.

Markets mixed amid increased hope for economic recovery

Markets were mixed on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.1 percent while the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.9 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.3 percent but the Shanghai Composite fell 0.4 percent.

“The strong results from the Pfizer vaccine were better than most expected and means we could be opening back up sooner than expected,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at US Bank Wealth Management, said that “near term, with signs of economic improvement on the horizon, we’re going to see cyclical companies outperform”.

Markets rise on COVID-19 vaccine news

Markets rose on Monday.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 surged 4.0 percent and the Nikkei 225 jumped 2.1 percent.

US crude oil surged 8.5 percent and Brent rose 7.5 percent.

Markets were buoyed by news that Pfizer and BioNTech reported that their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in preventing the disease among those without evidence of prior infection.

Paul Craig, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors, said the news marked a “first major step back to normality”.

Indeed, it will be much-needed, as the COVID-19 pandemic rages across the US, which reported more than 770,000 new cases in the week ended 10 November, up 34 percent over the previous seven days.

Stocks rally even as COVID-19 cases rise past 50 million

The S&P 500 rose 7.3 percent last week, its biggest weekly increase since April.

Most media attention last week was on the US presidential election, which former vice president Joe Biden ultimately won.

“The market is just getting more comfortable with the outcome of a divided government, where we see a continuation of political gridlock [and] no meaningful changes on tax policy,” said Dan Eye, head of asset allocation and equity research at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

Markets largely shrugged off the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic last week.

That may yet turn out to be a mistake, as global infections passed 50 million on Sunday.

Europe, with about 12 million cases, is the worst affected region, with countries such as Germany, France and the UK in various degrees of lockdown.

The US, which passed 10 million cases on Sunday, is the worst affected country. It reported a record 131,420 COVID-19 cases on Saturday and president-elect Joe Biden pledged on Saturday to make tackling the pandemic a top priority.

Markets mixed, US records “amazing” Oct job growth

Markets were mixed on Friday.

The S&P 500 was flat, the STOXX Euroe 600 fell 0.2 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.9 percent.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report failed to give US stocks much lift.

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 in October and the unemployment rate was at 6.9 percent.

“The strength of this report is really amazing in the face of rising coronavirus cases,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

However, some economists are worried that the strength may not be sustained.

“I think the risks are pretty high here that the economy backtracks,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “We are suffering a very significant reintensification of the virus...that’s going to start doing some damage.”

Markets rise, US faces split Congress and surging COVID-19

Markets rose on Thursday.

The S&P 500 surged 1.9 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.1 percent and the Nikkei 225 jumped 1.7 percent.

“It looks likely that we’ll see a split Congress, which, based on history, has been the preference of the stock market,” said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, as the US election vote-counting dragged on on Thursday.

Also on Thursday, the Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged.

“We’ve gotten through the first five, six months of the expansion better than expected,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a news conference after the two-day policy meeting. “But we have to be humble where we are relative to this disease. It has not gone away.”

Indeed, the US reported a record 114,876 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday. Hospitalisations for COVID-19 reached all-time highs in 16 states on Wednesday.

Markets rise as US election remains undecided

Markets rose on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 surged 2.2 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 jumped 2.1 percent.

While the US presidential election remained undecided and the possibility of a contested election exists, Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, said that “we do not see it as a bearish gamechanger”.

Markets rise ahead of US presidential election

Markets rose on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.8 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 surged 2.3 percent and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.4 percent.

Markets rose as Americans head for the US presidential election, with former Vice President Joe Biden holding a lead in national polling over President Donald Trump.

“I think that no matter who wins, you have a quick dip and you have to buy,” said CNBC's Jim Cramer.

Similarly, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said that “after almost a 10% decline in the last month, buying on the dip is back”.

Earlier in the day, the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its cash rate target to 0.1 percent.

“The cash rate is now really as close to negative as it can be,” said Paul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities at HSBC.

Markets rise amid positive manufacturing PMI data

Markets rose on Monday.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 jumped 1.6 percent and the Nikkei 225 gained 1.4 percent.

“Even though we’re worried that there could still be one more wave down if we get another big influx of uncertainty, we think the stock market is now setting up nicely for a nice net advance over the next two months or so,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak.

Markets were boosted by positive manufacturing PMI data on Monday.

The Caixin/Markit China manufacturing PMI rose to 53.6 in October from 53.0 in September.

The IHS Markit eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 54.8 in October from 53.7 in September.

In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 59.3 in October from 55.4 in September.

However, with the COVID-19 pandemic still raging around much of the world, Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial, warned that “the path forward will be more difficult as the economy continues to cope with the pandemic”.

Markets fall amid COVID-19 surge, lockdowns and record hospitalisations

Markets fell last week.

The S&P 500 and the STOXX Europe 600 both fell 5.6 percent.

Oil fell over 10 percent.

The rising number of COVID-19 cases weighed down markets last week and may continue to do so this week.

In Europe, new cases doubled over the past five weeks and propelled the total number of infections to over 10 million on Sunday.

France, Germany and the United Kingdom have announced nationwide lockdowns for at least the next month.

In contrast, in the US, which is seeing a continuing rise in COVID-19 cases with Midwestern states experiencing record hospitalisations, nationwide action to limit the spread has been limited of late.

“We have hospitalizations going through the roof,” said Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers on Sunday. “We absolutely need somebody that understands that this is an issue, it’s a thing. People are dying.”

Markets mixed, Europe readies new COVID-19 restrictions

Markets were mixed on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 1.5 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.2 percent.

Strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note that “mounting new economic restrictions, particularly in Europe, despite being forecastable and in lagged response to the re-acceleration in COVID-19 infections, only caught investors’ attention this week, triggering sharp losses”.

Indeed, EU officials warned Europe to be ready for wider COVID-19 restrictions.

“We need to pull through this, where needed, with restrictions on everyday life to break the chain of transmission,” said EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides.

The US reported a record 91,248 new cases on Thursday and reached its 9 millionth case on Friday.

Markets mixed, ECB to respond “promptly” to COVID-19 second wave

Markets were mixed on Thursday.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 dipped 0.1 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent.

“The earnings season so far has resulted in significant positive earnings surprises,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York.

The European Central Bank left interest rates and wider monetary policy unchanged at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday but hinted at more monetary stimulus in December.

“The Governing Council will carefully assess the incoming information, including the dynamics of the pandemic, prospects for a rollout of vaccines and developments in the exchange rate,” the ECB said in a statement.

Noting the rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a press conference after the meeting that the central bank had “responded very promptly...for the first wave; we will do it again for the second wave”.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan also left monetary policy unchanged on Thursday even as it revised its forecast of Japan's real GDP to show a 5.5 percent decline from a 4.7 percent fall in its previous projection.

Markets fall, France and Germany back in lockdown, US faces “whole lot of pain”

Markets fell on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 plunged 3.5 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 tumbled 3.0 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.3 percent.

Markets fell as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to surge globally and France and Germany announced that they were going back into lockdown.

“The virus is circulating at a speed that not even the most pessimistic forecasts had anticipated,” said French President Emmanuel Macron. “I have decided that we need to return to the lockdown which stopped the virus.”

“We need to take action now,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she ordered bars, restaurants and theatres to be shut from 2-30 November.

In contrast, US President Donald Trump appears to be in denial over the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.

“We are turning the corner. We are rounding the curve, we will vanquish the virus,” Trump said at an election campaign rally in West Salem, Wisconsin.

However, Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, appears to disagree, telling CNBC in an interview on Wednesday that the US is “going in the wrong direction”.

“If things do not change, if they continue on the course we’re on, there’s gonna be a whole lot of pain in this country with regard to additional cases and hospitalizations, and deaths,” said Fauci.

Markets fall as COVID-19 cases set new records

Markets were mostly lower on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.0 percent. Asian markets were mixed.

Stocks pulled back as the COVID-19 pandemic continued its own record-breaking run. Europe reported a record 230,892 new cases on Monday while the US reported an average of 69,967 new cases daily over the past seven days, the highest seven-day average on record.

“We are dealing with exponential growth,” German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier announced.

“This is a harbinger of a very tough winter that’s coming,” said Dr Bill Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University.

Markets fall amid record high COVID-19 cases

Markets fell on Monday.

The S&P 500 plunged 1.9 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 tumbled 1.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.8 percent.

Markets fell as the US, Russia, France and many other countries are setting records for COVID-19 infections, forcing some countries to impose new curbs.

Hopes for a stimulus deal in the US also dimmed after White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said on Monday that talks had slowed down.

“The double whammy of a stalled stimulus bill and new highs in cases is a harsh reminder of the many worries that are still out there,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

Countries “on dangerous track” as daily COVID-19 cases hit record highs

The COVID-19 pandemic appears likely to continue to weigh on markets this week.

On Friday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing that the world is “at a critical juncture in this pandemic” and that “some countries are on a dangerous track”.

Indeed, France reported a record 52,010 new confirmed coronavirus infections over the past 24 hours on Sunday, following a record 45,422 on Saturday.

The Spanish government on Sunday declared a national state of emergency that includes an overnight curfew. “The situation we are living in is extreme,” said Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

The US reported 83,757 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, a record high. This was followed by another 83,718 cases on Saturday.

“I think the winter is going to be very difficult,” said Dr Scott Gottlieb, the former US Food and Drug Administration commissioner.

Markets mixed, Europe and US COVID-19 cases surge

Markets were mostly higher on Friday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.6 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.2 percent.

Economic data on Friday were mixed.

The IHS Markit US PMI indices rose in October. The index for services climbed to 56.0 from 54.6 in the prior month while the index for the manufacturing sector edged up to 53.3 from 53.2.

However, the flash IHS Markit eurozone composite PMI fell to 49.4 from 50.4 in September.

“The euro zone is at increased risk of falling into a double-dip downturn as a second wave of virus infections led to a renewed fall in business activity,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Indeed, Europe’s daily COVID-19 infections have more than doubled in the last 10 days, reaching a total of 7.8 million cases and about 247,000 deaths. France passed 1 million cases on Friday with a new record daily tally of more than 42,000.

The situation is little better in the US. 76,195 new cases were reported on Thursday, and the death toll could surpass 500,000 by February unless nearly all Americans wear face masks, according to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

“We are heading into a very substantial fall/winter surge,” said IHME director Chris Murray.

Markets mixed, hospitals stretched as COVID-19 surges

Markets were mixed on Thursday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent. However, the STOXX Europe 600 dipped 0.1 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.7 percent.

US stocks rose amid renewed hopes for a fiscal stimulus after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats and the Trump administration were on the verge of an agreement.

Still, the COVID-19 situation in the US remains dire as several US states reported record single-day increases in infections on Thursday and hospitals became increasingly stretched.

In Europe, France extended curfews to around two thirds of its population on Thursday. “We are already swamped,” said Bruno Megarbane, head of intensive care at the Lariboisiere hospital in Paris.

In Spain, which this week became the first European country to pass 1 million cases, Health Minister Salvador Illa said the epidemic was now “out of control” in many areas.

Markets fall, US facing “exponential, explosive growth” of COVID-19

Markets were mostly lower on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.3 percent. However, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.3 percent.

A resurgent COVID-19 pandemic continued to weigh on markets, with six US states reporting record daily inceases in coronavirus-related deaths on Wednesday.

“We are not far from the period of exponential, explosive growth of #covid19 in the U.S.,” said Dr. Leana Wen, former Baltimore health commissioner, on Twitter.

Markets mixed, Europe faces renewed COVID-19 lockdowns

Markets were mixed on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5 percent.

However, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.4 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent.

While European stocks were weighed down by new restrictions on business activity and travel in several European countries to contain the rising number of COVID-19 cases, Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at StoneX, suggested that “the market seems comfortable with the measures being taken as long as they are not large-scale stay-at-home orders”.

Still, James Griffith at CNN suggested that “much of Europe stares down the barrel of renewed coronavirus lockdowns, and a potentially miserable -- and deadly -- winter to come”, whereas China, where the COVID-19 virus was first detected, is now recovering much better.

Markets fall, China GDP growth below expectations

Markets were mostly lower on Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.6 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.3 percent.

Earlier in Asia, markets were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.7 percent but the Nikkei 225 up 1.1 percent.

China's third quarter GDP grew 4.9 percent from a year ago, below expectations of 5.2 percent growth.

OCBC Bank’s Vasu Menon said that despite missing expectations, “when you drill down to the details, especially domestic consumption, I think that offers some room for optimism”.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 remained a concern as worldwide cases crossed 40 million on Monday, according to a Reuters tally.

Stocks rise as COVID-19 cases surge

Stocks rose last week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2 percent.

In propelling markets higher, nvestors have largely looked past the surge in COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe.

On Friday, the US reported the most infections in a single day since July. As of Saturday, more than 8.1 million cases had been reported in the US and 219,286 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.

"This surge has the potential to be way worse than it was than either the spring or the summer," said epidemiologist Dr Abdul El-Sayed, Detroit's former health director.

Meanwhile, in Europe,the death toll from COVID-19 passed 250,000 on Sunday after a 44 percent increase in cases last week.

Restriction are being raised in most parts of Europe. Nighttime curfews on millions came into force in France this weekend and Switzerland required all its citizens to wear masks in indoor public places.

Markets mixed as COVID-19 cases rise

Markets were mixed on Friday.

The S&P 500 was flat but the STOXX Europe 600 jumped 1.3 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.1 percent but the Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent.

In the US, a report on Friday showed that retail sales rose 1.9 percent in September, a gain that Mike Loewengart, director of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial, said “suggests consumer strength is pretty robust”, adding that “momentum on that front could be a positive for the market as investors look for signs of recovery”.

However, another report showed that US industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, which economists at Oxford Economics said is “one of the first real signs that the recovery is losing momentum”.

Indeed, the US could be facing a tough winter as the total number of COVID-19 cases surpassed 8 million on Friday.

The country has averaged more than 53,000 new daily cases for the past week, an increase of more than 55 percent in just over a month.

It is even worse in Europe, where cases have now overtaken the US, averaging roughly 97,000 new cases per day, up 44 percent from one week ago.

Markets fall amid surging COVID-19 cases and “nightmare” equity valuations

Markets fell on Thursday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 plunged 2.1 percent and the Nikkei 255 fell 0.5 percent.

The surge in COVID-19 cases dominated concerns, especially in Europe, where France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the Netherlands all reported record high new infections on Thursday.

Dr Hans Kluge, the head of the World Health Organisation Europe office, said death rates across the bloc could be “four to five times higher than those in April” by early next year if the pandemic is not consistently taken seriously.

However, US stocks managed to recover much of their early losses despite a report showing that claims for jobless benefits climbed 53,000 to 898,000 last week.

Still, Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch said contrarian thinking suggested that more weakness could lie ahead as investors have been extremely bullish lately.

“To put the timers’ current exuberance in perspective, consider the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects their average recommended equity exposure. Since 2000, 99% of the HSNSI’s daily readings have been lower than where it stands today,” he said.

Indeed, Cole Smead, president and portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management, told CNBC that such bullishness has pushed US equity valuations to become a “total nightmare”.

Markets fall as fiscal stimulus hope fades and COVID-19 cases surge

Markets fell on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 dipped 0.7 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6 percent.

Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, said that the likelihood of a US fiscal stimulus soon is “fading”.

Meanwhile, on corporate earnings reports, Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, said that it is “so far so good”.

However, Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said that the market’s optimism might make it vulnerable to bad news as “job growth has slowed substantially even as layoffs remain very high”.

In Europe, COVID-19 is clearly the primary concern as new daily cases hit about 100,000 and countries renew curfews and lockdowns.

“We are already in a phase of exponential growth, the daily numbers show that,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Markets fall, COVID-19 cases "to continue to rise"

Markets were mostly lower on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.6 percent.

Earlier in Asia, however, the Shanghai Composite was marginally higher while the Nikkei 225 rose 0.2 percent.

Markets fell after news that US regulators paused Eli Lilly’s late-stage COVID-19 trial due to safety concerns and Johnson & Johnson halted its coronavirus vaccine trial after a participant reported an unexplained illness.

Meanwhile, the COVID-19 news around the world remained grim.

Europe is tightening measures to contain the pandemic amid a sharp rise in cases.

The Czech Republic imposed a three-week partial lockdown after reporting the region's highest new infection rate per 100,000 people while the Netherlands imposed a four-week partial lockdown.

In the US, cases are also surging again.

"Now we're back up to (about) 50,000 new cases a day. And it's going to continue to rise," Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

Markets rise, could “crack pretty hard” within 18 months

Markets rose on Monday.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.6 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.7 percent and the Shanghai Composite surged 2.6 percent.

“Investors have not lost faith that further stimulus measures will follow and that an effective COVID-19 vaccine will soon be placed on the market,” said Milan Cutkovic, market analyst at Axi.

Still, the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe is leading to new restrictions that could hamper an economic recovery.

“Further lockdowns would jeopardise the already fragile economic recovery and have lasting effects on consumer confidence,” said Cutkovic.

DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach thinks that the US may not fare much better.

“I don’t think people fully understand how many business closures there’s going to be in the next few months,” he said.

He added that within 18 months, stocks are “going to crack pretty hard”.

Markets gain amid rising COVID-19 cases

Markets rose last week, with the S&P 500 rising 3.8 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 rising 2.1 percent.

In advancing, stocks shrugged off reports of rising COVID-19 cases around the world.

On Friday, the US saw a total of 57,420 new cases, the most since 14 August, and the third consecutive day that cases exceeded 50,000.

Russia reported a record 13,634 cases on Sunday.

India reported 74,383 cases on Sunday, pushing its total caseload above 7 million.

Markets higher on hopes for US fiscal stimulus

Markets were mostly higher on Friday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.6 percent. The Nikkei 225 dipped 0.1 percent.

US stocks rose as fiscal stimulus talks resumed, with President Donald Trump telling Fox News that there was a good chance an accord could be reached.

“I view election uncertainty as noise and I would be a buyer on short-term volatility,” said Ben Kirby, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management.

Also possibly boosting sentiment in the markets was news that Gilead Sciences's COVID-19 drug remdesivir shortened the time to recovery from the disease.

However, Reuters reported that a dozen US Midwestern states together reported a record 16,807 new cases on Thursday, with the number of hospitalisations hitting a record high for the fourth consecutive day.

Markets rise as low interest rates “clearly creating bubble elements”

Markets rose on Thursday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.8 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 1.0 percent.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note that “we do maintain a positive medium-term view for stocks into the middle of next year”.

Haefele cited fiscal stimulus, supportive central banks and medical developments as having “scope to surprise”.

Indeed, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC that the low interest rates provided by central banks “is clearly creating bubble elements”.

“People are lending to what historically have been viewed as weak credits for very little money,” he said.

One problem is that the world entered the current COVID-19-driven economic crisis with already low interest rates.

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren specifically cited “low rates persisting for an extended period even after the economy has made progress in the recovery” after the Great Recession ended in 2009 as making the current economic downturn even more severe.

He said that the low interest rates allowed firms to take on more leverage and “magnifies losses when bad outcomes occur”.

“I am sorry to say that the slow build-up of risk in the low-interest-rate environment that preceded the current recession likely will make the economic recovery from the pandemic more difficult,” he said.

Markets mixed as Trump reconsiders stimulus

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.7 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 dipped 0.1 percent. Asian markets mostly rose but Japanese stocks were little changed.

The US stock market was given a reprieve after President Donald Trump said that he would immediately sign individual stimulus measures, if sent to him, after previously calling off talks with the Democratic party.

Meanwhile, however, the COVID-19 situation continues to be a source of concern, with the number of US cases surpassing 7.5 million on Wednesday as nine states set seven-day records for infections.

In Europe, confirmed cases passed 6 million on Wednesday, with Scotland and Belgium the latest to introduce curbs on alcohol consumption.

Markets mixed as Trump halts stimulus talks

Markets were mixed on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.1 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.5 percent.

US stocks fell after President Donald Trump instructed White House officials to halt negotiations on further coronavirus stimulus.

“Walking away from coronavirus talks demonstrates that President Trump is unwilling to crush the virus, as is required by the Heroes Act,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

However, markets are still expecting stimulus eventually.

Jon Hill, senior fixed income strategist at BMP, said that a stimulus programme is still coming, just that “it will not occur until after the election”.

“Even after this news, the 10-year yields are higher than where they were yesterday morning,” noted Hill.

Dennis DeBusschere, quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, suggested that “unwinding stimulus trades should not be taken too far”.

Stocks rally as Trump returns to White House

The S&P 500 rose 1.8 percent on Monday after US President Donald Trump said he would be discharged from the hospital in the evening.

Sure enough, the President returned to the White House that evening, where he was criticised for “an irresponsible mask removal and a reckless pronouncement there is nothing to fear from Covid-19”.

Still, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said that the stock market rally reflects “hope on talks between Secretary Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi” producing an agreement on fiscal stimulus.

In addition, with former vice president Joe Biden opening his widest lead in a month in the presidential race, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays, said that markets “have lowered the chance of prolonged uncertainty” following the presidential election.

Trump COVID-19 illness possibly “severe”

The S&P 500 rose 1.5 percent last week, ending a four-week losing streak.

However, the index fell 1.0 percent on Friday after news that US President Donald Trump had tested positive for COVID-19

Some doctors think that the President's condition may be severe, noting that he has been started on dexamethasone.

“We give dexamethasone to patients who require supplemental oxygen,” said Dr Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University.

Dr Daniel McQuillen, an infectious disease specialist at Lahey Hospital & Medical Center in Burlington, said that “the news conference description suggested the President has more severe illness than the generally upbeat picture painted”.

The President's illness comes as nine US states reported record increases in COVID-19 cases over the last seven days.

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags on, permanent job losses are poised to climb.

And it is a similar story in Europe, as countries report a surge in infections and renewed restrictions.

After reporting a daily record of 16,972 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, France announced that Paris is to be placed on maximum COVID-19 alert, with bars to close for two weeks from Tuesday and restaurants to put in place new sanitary protocols to stay open.

Markets mixed after Trump tests positive for COVID-19

Markets were mixed on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.0 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.7 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.3 percent.

Markets were weighed down by news that US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19.

Investors were probably also disappointed by the US September employment report, which showed a gain of 661,000 jobs, the smallest since businesses reopened after lockdowns earlier this year.

“Job growth is moderating just as fiscal aid is expiring – a toxic cocktail,” wrote Oxford Economics economist Kathy Bostjancic in a note. “Despite relatively strong growth since May, employment remains a staggering 10.7 million below the pre-Covid level.”

Markets rise amid US stimulus delay and new COVID-19 restrictions

Markets rose on Thursday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.2 percent.

Markets rose despite a dearth of positive news.

In the US, discussions on additional fiscal stimulus have made little progress, and Goldman Sachs analysts in a recent report called the prospect of a new round of fiscal stimulus before the year’s end “unlikely”.

In Europe, the COVID-19 pandemic remained a concern as Italy extended its state of emergency until January, the Spanish capital Madrid goes back under lockdown and the UK announced an extension of localised restrictions in northern England.

Markets mixed, “incredible economic momentum” to drive stocks higher

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 dipped 0.1 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2 percent.

Economic data on Wednesday were positive.

In the US, ADP’s monthly private-sector jobs report showed an increase of 749,000 in September while another report showed pending home sales jumped 8.8 percent in August.

In China, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in September from 51.0 in August while the Caixin/Markit PMI came in at 53.0, down slightly from 53.1 in August.

Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen told CNBC that “incredible economic momentum” will drive stocks higher in the fourth quarter.

Still, the spectre of COVID-19 remains as the UK reported more than 7,000 cases for the second day in a row and several European countries looked at tightening restrictions in an effort to contain the spread of the virus over autumn and winter.

Markets fall but analysts remain optimistic

Markets were mostly lower on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.5 percent but the Shanghai Composite rose 0.2 percent.

Despite the decline on Tuesday, many analysts remain optimistic on stocks.

“Our stance on equities is still constructive in the medium-term, even if it’s bumpy ride due to risks including Brexit, U.S.-China trade friction and uncertainty around the U.S. election,” said Michele Morganti, equity strategist at Generali Insurance Asset Management.

WealthWise Financial CEO Loreen Gilbert said that the US stock market will return to all-time highs this year. “We are in a bull market run,” she said.

JPMorgan Private Bank’s head of equities strategy Grace Peters said she sees “around a 10% upside over a 12-month view”.

Canaccord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer said that “excess liquidity” and “a synchronized global recovery” have created an environment “that really sets the stage for intermediate-term opportunity”.

Markets rise, but “to remain choppy for a bit longer”

Markets rose on Monday.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.6 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 surged 2.2 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 1.3 percent.

Despite the rally on Monday, analysts remained cautious for the near term.

Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, said the recent rough spell for stocks will “bleed into October as visible risk events linger”.

Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist Graham Secker wrote in a note that “we expect markets to remain choppy for a bit longer”.

Over the longer term, however, analysts were somewhat more optimistic.

“Looking at the micro picture suggests this is just a correction in a new bull market and the best opportunities remain in reopening beneficiaries,” said Wilson.

US stocks in longest losing streak since Aug 2019

The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent last week, its fourth consecutive weekly decline, matching the longest losing streak since August 2019.

Some investors are questioning whether the recent selloff in stocks heralds a longer period of volatility.

“The action that we have seen this week makes me less confident that this is a healthy correction,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird. “The lack of stimulus, the uptick in coronavirus cases, the tension coming out of D.C. overall lends to an environment that is going to be a little bit harder for stocks to remain relatively sanguine through.”

Wells Fargo head of equity strategy Chris Harvey thinks it is too risky to put new money in stocks right now.

Harvey cited uncertainties over the COVID-19 pandemic and the US presidential election as contributing to downside risks, although he remains “longer-term positive”.

In contrast, Nomura Asset Management Co-Manager of the Global High Conviction Fund Ilan Chaitowitz told CNBC last week that investors should stay the course.

Chaitowitz said that the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases should be treated as a seasonal phenomenon and investors should position for infection rates to “collapse” heading into spring.

Chaitowitz also said that progress on COVID-19 vaccines provide cause for optimism, as did Barclays analysts Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Amrut Nashikkar, who suggested that a vaccine is now a matter of “when, not if”.

Markets mixed, “trend remains bearish”

Markets were mixed on Friday.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.6 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 dipped 0.1 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.5 percent but the Shanghai Composite fell 0.1 percent.

Mark Newton, managing member at Newton Advisors, said in a note that “there are still no real signs of strength” and that “the trend remains bearish”.

“After a buoyant and hopeful summer, financial markets are cooling in the face of reality,” strategists at MRB Partners said in a note.

In the meantime, Europe continues to battle a resurgent COVID-19 pandemic, with the UK and France reporting their most daily cases on Thursday and Spain considering imposing a total lockdown on the capital Madrid.

“New restrictions in Europe, less fiscal support, fading liquidity impulse and election risk should weigh on activity in Q4,” European equity strategists at Barclays wrote in a note.

Markets mixed, COVID-19 cases hit record highs in Europe

Markets were mixed on Thursday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.0 percent and the Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.7 percent.

Megan Horneman, director of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital Advisors, noted: “People are getting concerned about what kind of economic recovery we’re going to get in the next few months.”

Indeed, Goldman Sachs has slashed its US fourth-quarter GDP forecast to 3 percent from 6 percent on an annualised basis, noting that “any further fiscal support will likely have to wait until 2021”.

In Europe, the resurgence in COVID-19 remained a concern as the number of cases reached a record high of 52,418 over a rolling seven-day average on Tuesday, according to CNN.

The UK recorded its highest number of daily cases on Thursday at 6,634, and credit rating agency S&P Global now sees the UK GDP declining 9.7 percent this year.

Peter Drobac, a global health physician and director at Oxford University's Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship, said that “we're losing control of this” and warned that “winter could be a perfect storm”.

US stocks plunge as economic recovery loses momentum

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 plunged 2.4 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.6 percent. The Nikkei 225 dipped 0.1 percent.

Data from IHS Markit on Wednesday showed that its flash US composite PMI slipped to 54.4 this month from 54.6 in August while its flash eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.1 in September from 51.9 in August.

“The news flow has been negative on the virus and negative on growth,” said Ben Randol, senior FX strategist at BofA Securities.

“We’re at that phase where it’s harder to get that next bit of the recovery, that next bit of the reopening in place,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.

Markets rise, UK reimposes COVID-19 restrictions

Markets were mostly higher on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1 percent while the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.2 percent.

Earlier in the day, though, Asian markets fell, with the Shanghai Composite declining 1.3 percent.

The resurgence in COVID-19 cases remained a concern, dragging down many airline and travel-related stocks.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the British people on Tuesday to work from home where possible and ordered restaurants and bars to close early to tackle the resurgence in the country.

“We reserve the right to deploy greater firepower, with significantly greater restrictions,” he told parliament.

In the US, the death toll from COVID-19 exceeded 200,000 on Tuesday, by the far the highest number of any nation.

The University of Washington’s health institute is forecasting that the death toll will reach 378,000 by the end of 2020.

Markets fall amid reports of illicit bank transfers

Markets fell on Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 sank 3.2 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6 percent.

Markets took a hit after reports indicated that several global banks moved large sums of allegedly illicit funds over a period of nearly two decades.

The resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe also took a toll on markets, with UK scientists warning on Monday that the country could see almost 50,000 new cases per day in mid-October.

Markets fall amid US-China tension and Europe COVID-19 resurgence

Markets were mostly lower on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.7 percent.

Earlier in the day, though, the Shanghai Composite jumped 2.1 percent.

Concerns about tensions between the US and China increased after the US Commerce Department said on Friday that it is prohibiting transactions involving Tencent’s WeChat and Bytedance’s TikTok, adding that “the President has provided until November 12 for the national security concerns posed by TikTok to be resolved”.

In Europe, concerns over the resurgence in COVID-19 was the focus of investors as several countries announced new restrictions on movement.

“We are now seeing a second wave coming in,” said UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

“If the uptick in cases becomes strong enough that lockdowns have to be tightened to a point that it derails the economic recovery, then it becomes a risk factor,” said Mobeen Tahir, associate director of research at fund house Wisdom Tree.

Markets fall, COVID-19 situation in Europe “very serious”

Markets fell on Thursday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.5 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.4 percent.

Following Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on Wednesday that the economic downturn in the US is “the most severe in our lifetime”, World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said at a conference on Thursday that a full recovery of the global economy “will take as much as five years”.

Indeed, Europe is seeing a renewed surge in COVID-19 cases.

“We have a very serious situation unfolding before us,” WHO’s regional director for Europe, Hans Kluge, said Thursday in a press briefing on the epidemiological situation in the region. “Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March.”

Markets mixed amid “most severe” economic downturn

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.6 percent. Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.4 percent but the Nikkei 225 rose 0.1 percent.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates near zero at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. It also said it planned to keep rates low until inflation is on track to “moderately exceed” its 2 percent inflation target “for some time”.

However, investor sentiment was pegged back after Fed chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic is “the most severe in our lifetime”.

Markets rise with China retail sales

Markets rose on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.7 percent and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5 percent.

Stocks received a boost from a report from China showing that retail sales rose 0.5 percent in August from a year ago, the first positive report for the year. Industrial production rose 5.6 percent.

“We think that China’s economic recovery is on a reasonably firm footing now and should continue through Q4 and into 2021,” economists at Oxford Economics wrote.

In the US, industrial production rose 0.4 percent in August.

After pullback, S&P 500 to hit “new highs”

The S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent on Monday amid a slew of corporate dealmaking activity and optimism toward a coronavirus vaccine.

“Part of this move is from renewed hope for a vaccine,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, after AstraZeneca resumed phase three trials for its COVID-19 vaccine in the UK and Pfizer announced that a vaccine could be distributed in the US before the year-end.

“September has thus far lived up to its reputation, but I think that’s reversing again,” Cardillo said.

Meanwhile, Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, said that the stock market’s September pullback was likely the first of many but he expects the bull market to persist nevertheless.

“The 7% correction in the S&P 500 SPX, +1.27% over the past six trading sessions is likely the first of a few 3-7% drawdowns followed by new highs as the market stair-steps higher like the fall of 2009, driven by election-year angst and the extended nature of the market-cap-weighted indices,” he said.

S&P 500 selling “to pick up”

The S&P 500 fell 2.5 percent last week, its second consecutive weekly decline, and some analysts think that it could fall further in the coming weeks.

Tim Hayes, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, told Business Insider that he expects a 15-20 percent decline.

“Right now valuations and sentiment have priced in a much better economic and earnings outlook than we are seeing and than what is coming through the numbers. That is becoming a motivation for the momentum selling to pick up,” said Hayes.

However, Hayes thinks that the S&P 500 will stage a rally later once the US presidential election in November is out of the way.

“Once you get past the US election the uncertainty will clear up and by then market valuations may look better,” he said.

Paul R La Monica at CNN Business noted that most S&P 500 stocks had in fact been having “a pretty tough 2020”.

“Nearly 60% of the companies in the index were in the red for 2020 through Thursday's close, according to data from Refinitiv,” he wrote.

“Without Big Tech's influence, the broad market would not look quite as stable as it does today,” he quoted analysts from Zacks Investment Research as saying.

“The recent imbalances in the stock market can lead to vulnerability,” said Jeff Kleintop, chief global Investment strategist for Charles Schwab.

However, UBS said in a note on Friday that the market decline will likely be short-lived.

UBS noted that the trend in economic data “remains positive”, with the most recent Citi Surprise Index reading at 86.

In addition, UBS thinks further fiscal and monetary stimuli are possible, noting that the Federal Reserve's recent inflation policy overhaul “signals the Fed's greater willingness to tolerate inflation overshooting the 2% target before tightening policy”.

Markets rise, “no-deal” Brexit looms

Markets rose on Friday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.1 percent and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.8 percent.

“Investors should brace for more choppiness in the months ahead, with COVID-19 infection rates remaining in the headlines, U.S. elections approaching, U.S.-China tensions ratcheting up, and Brexit challenges lingering,” said Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management.

The European Union stepped up planning for a “no-deal” Brexit on Friday after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government said it plans to break international law by breaching parts of the Withdrawal Agreement treaty that it signed in January.

“Nobody should underestimate the practical, economic and social consequences of a ‘no-deal’ scenario,” said EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier.

Markets fall, “will remain volatile”

Markets mostly fell on Thursday.

The S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.6 percent.

Earlier in the day, Asian stocks were mixed, with the Nikkei 225 rising 0.9 percent but the Shanghai Composite falling 0.6 percent.

“Until there’s a clear unambiguous, oversold underpinning, markets will remain volatile,” Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.

Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, said in a note that “we should expect more volatility in the weeks to come heading into the U.S. presidential election” in November.

At its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, the European Central Bank left its deposit rate unchanged at minus 0.5 percent and its refinancing rate at 0 percent while reaffirming it plans to leave rates at present or lower levels until inflation rises to converge with its target at 2 percent.

Markets rebound but COVID-19 may still “spook consumers”

Markets mostly rebounded on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 jumped 2.0 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.6 percent.

Earlier in the day, Asian markets had declined, with the Nikkei 225 closing down 1.0 percent.

“Broadly, the technology sector is leading the recovery,” said James Ragan, director of Wealth Management Research at DA Davidson.

However, Donald Calcagni, chief investment officer with Mercer Advisors, is wary of the tech sector following its recent rally. “Those gains didn’t make a lot of sense,” he said.

In addition, Calcagni remains worried about COVID-19, saying that reopening the economy with the virus still around is “going to spook consumers”.

Underlining the threat still posed by COVID-19, a trial for a potential vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca PLC has been halted after a participant was struck by an unexplained illness.

Nasdaq plunges into correction territory

Markets were mostly lower on Tuesday.

In the US, the S&P 500 tumbled 2.8 percent and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 4.1 percent, the latter falling into correction territory after declining 10 percent in three sessions.

Elsewhere, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.2 percent but earlier in the day, Asian markets were higher, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 0.8 percent.

Analysts cited remarks by US President Donald Trump on Monday threatening to “decouple” the US economy from China as contributing to the decline.

The sharp decline in US tech stocks in particular comes as many analysts are describing the tech rally as a bubble.

Andrew Parlin, founder and chief investment officer of investment advisory Washington Peak, said that “insanely high price-to-sales ratios highlight the total lack of realism embedded in the hottest growth stocks” and that a “shocking, spectacular and disorderly” market crash looms.

However, Blackstone's Byron Wien is more sanguine.

“There is a good part of the market that’s underpriced,” he said. “Airlines, transportation and hospitality have performed poorly, and some represent good value for patient investors who can tolerate the risk as a part of their portfolio.”

Also, while some of the market turmoil has been driven by US-China tension, “if there would be some reconciliation or some rapprochement between the U.S. and China that would restore normal relations, it would be interpreted favorably by the financial markets”.

Markets mixed, US tech sector in “bubble territory”

Markets were mixed on Monday.

The STOXX Europe 600 jumped 1.7 percent but Asian stocks fell, with the Nikkei falling 0.5 percent and the Shanghai Composite tumbling 1.9 percent.

Chinese stocks failed to gain from a report showing that exports rose 9.5 percent from a year ago.

“We expect export growth to stay robust in the rest of the year as the global economy recovers,” economists at Oxford Economics wrote in a note referring to China’s latest trade data.

Meanwhile, Wall Street was closed on Monday for a holiday after declining last week, and some analysts think the decline is not over yet.

“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.

“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG.

However, most analysts think that the sell-off is likely to be temporary.

“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” said JPMorgan analysts.

Still, Jonathan Bell, chief investment officer at Stanhope Capital, said that the US tech sector is in bubble territory.

“You’ve got exuberance on just a very small number of stocks. That’s certainly bubble territory,” said Bell.

S&P 500 pullback “normal” but leaves “a lot of scarring”

The S&P 500 fell 2.3 percent last week, with a particularly heavy fall of 3.5 percent on Thursday.

Still, some analysts remain bullish on the US stock market.

SunTrust Advisory chief market strategist Keith Lerner suggested that the decline is normal for a bull market.

“Since the current bull market kicked off in March, there have only been two pullbacks of more than 5%,” he wrote, noting that recent bull markets have tended to have three or four setbacks over the first nine months.

“We view the latest selloff as a bout of profit-taking after a strong run,” wrote UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer Mark Haefele. “Stocks are still well-supported by a combination of Fed liquidity, attractive equity risk premiums, and a continuing recovery as economies reopen from the lockdowns.”

Others, though, note an uncertain outlook for stocks.

“The mini-tech selloff on Thursday has left a lot of scarring,” wrote Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp.

Analysts at Wolfe Research cited a possible resurgence of COVID-19 this fall as children and college students return to school and flu season begins.

Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Markets, suggested that an explosion in volumes related to the selloff and the S&P 500 closing below its uptrend “indicate that momentum is likely shifting”.

Meanwhile, John Hussman, president of Hussman Investment Trust, suggested in his latest article that “valuations have broken above every historical peak, and estimated future market returns have fallen beyond the lowest points in history, including 1929”.

“Overall, we have a hypervalued market that we associate with the worst prospective 10-12 year market returns in the history of the U.S. financial markets, along with extreme bullish sentiment, tepid participation, breadth, and leadership, as well as divergent implied volatility,” he wrote.

“In my view, it’s primarily the blind faith of investors in a ‘Fed backstop’ in recent months that has enabled an extension of market valuations to the most extreme levels ever observed in history,” Hussman said.

However, Hussman expects a “real amplification of downside risks”.

“In my view, even the Federal Reserve’s use of CARES funds to buy outstanding corporate bonds will not produce solvency across the mountain of commercial real estate, mortgage, consumer, municipal, and corporate debt that I believe is quietly deteriorating,” he said.

Markets fall but “stocks still well-supported”

Markets fell on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.1 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.1 percent.

Analysts remain optimistic despite the two-day fall in stock markets.

“Stocks are still well-supported by a combination of Fed liquidity, attractive equity risk premiums, and an ongoing recovery as economies reopen from the lockdowns,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note.

A report on Friday showed that the US economy gained 1.4 million jobs in August, a pace that JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist for TD Ameritrade, described as “slow but steady which is actually a perfect thing to see overall”.

Still, Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel, warned in a note that with the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the stock market at or near levels last seen in the final two years of the 1920s and 1990s rallies, “the building (and inevitable bursting) of a bubble could make the market a ‘greater fool game’ challenge in the near-term and a modest return vehicle longer term, dashing the optimism of investors”.

S&P 500 plunges, possible “Minsky moment”

Markets fell on Thursday.

The S&P 500 plunged 3.5 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 tumbled 1.4 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6 percent.

“Tech stocks, and the overall market, hadn’t really had a bad day since June, so this is a healthy breather,” said Esty Dwek, head of global macro strategy for Natixis Investment Managers.

Pershing Square Capital CEO Bill Ackman said: “It’s certainly not the beginning of the end, but I would say we’re coming upon one of the more uncertain periods in American history.”

Less sanguine is Ron William, market strategist and founder of RW Advisory, who told CNBC on Thursday of a possible “Minsky moment” amid the “ongoing story of tech street, Wall Street and Main Street all diverging”.

In addition, with low ETF flows and a spike in VIX, William suggested that assets could fall by “20 to 30 percent or more”.

Indeed, Matt Egan at CNN noted that the VIX just hit its highest level ever at an all-time high for the S&P 500.

Daryl Jones, director of research at Hedgeye Risk Management, said that it is “a significant red flag”, suggesting that a “higher stock market on higher volatility is telling you that risk is increasing”.

S&P 500 hits another record high amid “unprecedented” stimulus

Markets rose on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 1.5 percent to another record high while the STOXX Europe 600 jumped 1.7 percent.

While the global tally for confirmed COVID-19 cases rose to near 26 million on Wednesday, leading infectious disease health expert Dr Anthony Fauci said that a COVID-19 vaccine could come by the end of 2020.

In the meantime, hopes for a rapid recovery in the US economy saw a minor setback on Wednesday after ADP reported that 428,000 private-sector jobs were created in August, fewer than an expected gain of 900,000 jobs.

“It’s a pretty substantial miss, but still much better than what we saw last month,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director investment strategy at E-Trade Financial.

Another report showed that US factory orders rose 6.4 percent in July for a third consecutive increase.

Also, Chris Armbruster, a portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick, said that the “unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, not only in the U.S., but around the world, is going to provide the economy with a bridge”.

Markets mixed amid positive global manufacturing data

Markets were mixed on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to a record high but the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.4 percent.

Positive global manufacturing data helped markets, with JP Morgan's global manufacturing PMI rising to a 21-month high of 51.8 in August from 50.6 in July.

However, Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said the Federal Reserve’s ongoing stimulus is “a key backstop going forward”.

Markets dip as sentiment “extended”

Markets were mostly lower on Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.6 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2 percent.

A rise in COVID-19 cases across more than half of the US is keeping health experts concerned.

“I think the fall is going to be a bit of a mess,” said Dr Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.

Investment analysts, though, appear more sanguine.

“Over the course of the next eight weeks, we’re going to have a raft of announcements on a vaccine. If they are all positive, it’s going to trump everything,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.

Indeed, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA in New York, said that the new bull market that emerged from the February-March COVID-19 bear market could last three years.

Still, the bullish sentiment in the market has other analysts concerned.

“Retail enthusiasm for the market via commission-free trading apps plus the huge volatility earlier this year have led to a massive boom in options volumes,” analysts at Bespoke Investment Group wrote.

“In any event, the prevalence of call buying is in our view a clear-cut signal that sentiment is extended after a blistering equity market rally since March,” they added.