Markets mixed, more lockdowns “likely” amid rising COVID-19 cases

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.3 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai Composite rose 1 percent but the Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent.

“We expect strong economic growth to reemerge in 2021 in the wake of headwinds from the pandemic in 2020 and the U.S.-China trade war in 2019,” said Doug Rao, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

However, the number of COVID-19 cases in the US continues to rise, with at least 188,167 new cases and more than 2,250 virus-related deaths each day, based on a seven-day average calculated by CNBC.

Megan Horneman, director of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital Advisors, warned that “the rising Covid cases will likely lead to more regional lockdowns after the holidays”.

S&P 500 falls, Nikkei 225 surges

Markets were mixed on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.8 percent and the Nikkei 225 surged 2.7 percent.

COVID-19 remains a concern for investors, with at least 184,000 new infections reported daily in the US over the past week, according to a CNBC analysis.

“Vaccine distribution has now officially begun … yet the pandemic has reached concerning levels on multiple fronts,” wrote Jason Pride, CIO of private wealth at Glenmede.

Still, some analysts are optimistic.

“The combination of vaccine rollouts, fiscal stimulus, and easy monetary policy continues to create a positive backdrop for equities going into 2021,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Markets rise, “pillars of rally remain in place”

Markets rose on Monday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.7 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.7 percent.

Markets rose after US President Donald Trump signed a US$900 billion COVID-19 relief bill into law on Sunday.

“The five pillars of the rally (Federal stimulus, FOMC stimulus, vaccine rollout, divided government and no double dip-recession) remain largely in place, and until that changes, the medium and longer-term outlook for stocks will be positive,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report.

COVID-19 and the global economy

CNBC has five charts that show how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the global economy.

The key points from the article:

• Many countries went into months of lockdown in 2020 in a bid to stem the spread of Covid-19, which reduced cross-border travel and accelerated job losses.
• Governments increased spending to cushion the economic damage, but are now left with a huge debt pile to reckon with in the coming years.
• Meanwhile, central banks around the world slashed interest rates and purchased more assets to inject more money into the financial system.

Stocks expected to rise in 2021

While most major stock markets were closed on Friday, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.0 percent.

The Nikkei 225 was flat.

Southwest Securities said in a report that the Shanghai Composite could hit the 4,000-point level in 2021 thanks to China’s solid economic recovery and continued policy support.

The US stock market is also expected to continue advancing into 2021.

A CNBC survey of investment strategists showed that the S&P 500 is expected to end 2021 at 4,056.

Markets rise, Brexit trade deal reached

Markets rose on Thursday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent, the FTSE 100 rose 0.1 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.5 percent.

The UK and European Union reached an agreement on a trade deal after European markets closed on Thursday. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the agreement “fair” and a “relief”.

Susannah Streeter, a senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that the deal would help fuel a recovery for the UK economy which, if sustained, “could herald in a new Roaring Twenties era”.

Markets rise, Brexit talks in “final stages”

Markets were mostly higher on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.1 percent and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.8 percent.

European markets were buoyed by a report that talks between the European Union and the UK on a Brexit trade deal are in their “final stages”.

“The fact that they are still talking has given another reason to buy into the market,” said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

However, US stocks were weighed down by renewed political uncertainty after President Donald Trump called the new US$900 billion COVID-19 relief package an unsuitable “disgrace” and told lawmakers to alter the bill’s content.

Ed Mills of Raymond James said that “our base case remains that the bill passed by Congress will become law”.

Markets mixed, EU in final push for Brexit deal with UK

Markets were mixed on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent and the Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.9 percent.

However, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.2 percent as the European Union said it is giving a “final push” in a bid to strike a Brexit trade deal with the UK.

Lingering concerns over COVID-19 kept other markets in check though. The US is under siege from the disease as hospitals are becoming overwhelmed before the festive holidays.

“The whole California ICU capacity has been going down. We are all struggling,” said Dr Imran Mohammed of Sutter Roseville Medical Center.

Markets fall amid new travel restrictions

Markets were mostly lower on Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent while the STOXX Europe 600 plunged 2.3 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.2 percent but the Shanghai Composite rose 0.8 percent.

Oil fell. Brent tumbled 2.6 percent and West Texas Intermediate fell 2.8 percent.

Concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic were renewed after discovery of a new coronavirus variant led several countries in Europe and elsewhere to block travel from the UK.

“Reports of a new strain of the coronavirus have weighed on risk sentiment and oil,” said UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

COVID-19: US reaches relief deal, UK tightens restrictions

The S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent last week, its fourth weekly gain in five weeks.

Stocks could start the week on a positive note.

On Sunday, the US Congress reached a deal on a US$900 billion COVID-19 relief package.

On the COVId-19 pandemic itself, however, there was less positive news.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Saturday that London and other areas in southern England currently under Tier 3 restrictions will move to an even stricter new Tier 4 that requires non-essential shops, hairdressers and indoor leisure venues to close. A planned five-day easing of socialising rules that would allow up to three households to meet in “Christmas bubbles” will be cancelled for Tier 4 areas.

The move comes as the country's top medical officer announced that the UK has identified a new variant of the coronavirus that “can spread more quickly” than prior strains of the virus. New COVID-19 cases in the UK rose more than 40 percent last week compared to the prior week.

Globally, COVID-19 infections passed 75 million on Saturday.

Markets fall, BoJ extends pandemic programme

Markets fell on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.4 percent and the Nikkei 225 dipped 0.2 percent.

Markets were weighed down by the lack of progress in talks on US fiscal stimulus and a post-Brexit trade deal.

The Bank of Japan on Friday announced a six-month extension of its special programme aimed at easing corporate financing pressures amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the yield target on the 10-year Japan government bond was set at around zero percent while the short-term interest target was set to minus 0.1 percent.

S&P 500 at record high, US jobless claims rise

Markets rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.6 percent to close at a record high.

Investors shrugged off a report showing that US jobless claims totalled 885,000 last week, the highest level since early September.

“Until COVID is more under control, claims are going to continue to be elevated,” Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note.

On Wednesday, the US recorded more than 247,000 new COVID-19 infections.

Markets rise, Fed commits to more bond buying

Markets rose on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.8 percent and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.3 percent.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates near zero at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and said it would buy at least US$120 billion of bonds each month “until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals”.

The Fed decision came even as Fed officials elevated their outlook on the economy. The median expectation for US GDP in 2020 is now a decline of 2.4 percent compared with the 3.7 percent decline in September.

At the news conference after the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in response to a question that asset prices are “a little high” but is not concerned because interest rates are low.

In Europe, stocks rose as the EU signalled progress in talks over a post-Brexit trade agreement with the UK. “There is a path to an agreement now,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.

Markets rise, to “march higher in 2021”

Markets were mostly higher on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.3 percent.

Earlier in the day, though, Asian markets were mostly lower, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.2 percent.

“We may have already gotten a little bit of a Santa Claus rally,” said David Waddell, chief investment strategist at wealth advisory firm Waddell and Associates. “I wouldn’t be surprised...if the market consolidated its gains a little bit.”

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said that the stock market is “highly priced, but it’s not so high that I wouldn’t consider it as an investment”.

Brian Belski, chief investment strategist of BMO Capital Markets, thinks that “stocks will continue their march higher in 2021”.

Markets mixed, more COVID-19 lockdowns loom

Markets were mixed on Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.4 percent and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.7 percent.

US stocks fell as New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio warned on Monday that the city could experience a “full shutdown” soon.

In the UK, the government announced on Monday that London will be placed on England’s toughest tier of COVID-19 restrictions.

“These are lockdowns that are hurting global growth,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.

Still, some analysts remain sanguine.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines will support “a return to more normal levels of economic and social activity”, so for global equities, “there is further upside to come”.

Stocks fall amid “excessively high” optimism

The S&P 500 fell 1 percent last week, its first weekly decline in three weeks.

Canaccord Genuity’s chief market strategist Tony Dwyer told CNBC last week that stock market optimism “is excessively high” and that the market is ripe for a sharp pullback in the near term.

However, Dwyer himself is optimistic for the longer term. “With the combination of excess liquidity and a synchronized global recovery, I think it’s set up for a pretty good year,” he said.

Similarly, Federated Hermes chief equity market strategist Phil Orlando told CNBC that there “could be some more chop over the next week or so” but that “we’re going to get through some of these hurdles near term and get to that 3,800 level by the end of the year”.

In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 also fell 1 percent last week, ending a five-week winning streak.

European stocks were weighed down by a stalemate in talks between the European Union and the UK that raised chances of the latter leaving the bloc without a trade deal.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that the talks will be extended beyond Sunday’s deadline.

Another major concern is the COVID-19 pandemic. Even while vaccines are being rolled out, lockdowns being imposed in the meantime throughout Europe threaten to derail the economic recovery.

On Sunday, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the country will close most stores from Wednesday until at least 10 January.

“The situation is out of control,” said Bavaria’s prime minister Markus Soeder.

Markets fall, no progress on US fiscal stimulus and Brexit trade deal

Markets fell on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.8 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent.

US fiscal stimulus talks ended on Thursday without showing signs of progress towards an agreement.

“Optimism surrounding a near-term fiscal stimulus deal are fading despite reports of a bipartisan deal, as the sides can agree on the size of a deal, but not the details,” wrote Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Brexit trade negotiations also show no sign of progress.

“Time is running out and we need to prepare for a hard Brexit,” said Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

Markets fall, ECB expands bond buying

Markets were mostly lower on Thursday.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.1 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.4 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.2 percent while the Shanghai Composite was flat.

Commerce Street Capital CEO Dory Wiley said that “after such good returns in clearly a terrible fundamentals year, I think taking some profits and moving to cash, not bonds, makes some sense here”.

The European Central Bank announced on Thursday that it is increasing the overall size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme by 500 billion euros as it lowered its forecast for 2021 eurozone GDP growth to 3.9 percent from 5 percent in September.

“Central bankers have flooded bank balance sheets, but those funds are not flowing through the economy normally,” said Aaron Anderson, SVP of Research at Fisher Investments.

Meanwhile, a meeting between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss a Brexit trade deal on Wednesday yielded no breakthrough.

Markets mixed, US COVID-19 sets records, Brexit deal “inevitable”

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.3 percent.

Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.1 percent but the Nikkei 225 rose 1.3 percent.

“I think we’re having a bit of a digestion day after hitting new highs,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist, on the US market decline.

Not helping market sentiment is the continuing rise in COVID-19 cases in the US, with the daily death toll passing 3,000 for the first time on Wednesday and hospitalisations for the disease hitting a new all-time high.

In Europe, stocks finished off session highs as Brexit talks between the UK and the European Commission showed no sign of progress, although Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, opined that an agreement “is inevitable”.

Markets rise, US COVID-19 cases pass 15 million

Markets were mostly higher on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to a record high and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.2 percent. However, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.3 percent.

Even as US COVID-19 cases passed 15 million, investors were encouraged by more positive news on vaccines and fiscal stimulus talks.

“As a whole, there are reasons to be optimistic,” said Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management.

Markets fall as US COVID-19 cases hit record high

Markets fell on Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.3 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.8 percent.

Markets fell after the seven-day average number of COVID-19 cases in the US hit a record high.

“Although vaccine approval in the U.S. appears imminent, increased restrictions or shutdowns in the U.S. could slow the near-term recovery in economic growth,” Goldman Sachs equity strategists wrote on Monday.

Still, analysts are hopeful for the longer term.

“The economy could be booming next spring if enough of us are inoculated against the virus,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.

US faces “rough months ahead” from COVID-19

The S&P 500 rose 1.7 percent last week to a record high. It was its fourth weekly gain in five weeks.

Optimism over the release of COVID-19 vaccines helped drive the rally in stocks despite a disappointing US jobs report on Friday.

Still, COVID-19 cases continue to rise in the US, with hospitalisations for the disease hitting a record high on Sunday.

Also, a report published last week by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine said that the number of people in the US killed by COVID-19 could nearly double in the next several months despite a nationwide vaccine rollout.

“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement.

Markets rise despite “grim” US jobs report

Markets mostly rose on Friday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent to a record high and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.6 percent. However, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.2 percent.

Investors shrugged off a report on Friday that showed that the US economy added 245,000 jobs in November, well below expectations.

Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, said that the report “is beckoning lawmakers to act on additional fiscal stimulus measures”.

Indeed, president-elect Joe Biden described the employment report as “grim”.

“If we don’t act now, the future will be very bleak,” he said.

Markets little changed, poised for “good end to 2020”

Markets were mostly little changed on Thursday.

The S&P 500 dipped less than 0.1 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2 percent. The STOXX Europe 600 was flat.

While the S&P 500 pulled away slightly from the record high set on Wednesday, Ally Invest’s chief investment strategist Lindsey Bell told CNBC on Wednesday that with more fiscal stimulus expected and resilient consumer spending, “it will be a good end to 2020” for stocks.

Similarly, Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, said that US government stimulus and Federal Reserve monetary policy are helping cushion the economy from the impact of COVID-19 and that “the economy will be supportive for markets for some time”.

S&P 500 hits record high as US faces “most difficult” period

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to a record high. However, the STOXX Europe 600 slipped 0.1 percent, as did the Shanghai Composite.

“The beginning of Covid-19 vaccinations is getting close, bringing ‘buy on any dip’ to the forefront,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.

In the meantime, though, the pandemic continues to wreak havoc, not least in the US, where the number of people in hospitals for the disease now exceeds 100,000.

“I don’t think we’ve ever seen this number,” said Dr Janis Orlowski, chief health care officer at the Association of American Medical Colleges. “We’re headed into a bad, bad, bad two or three weeks.”

Indeed, Dr Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Wednesday that the next few months will be among “the most difficult in the public health history of this nation”.

S&P 500, US COVID-19 hospitalisations hit record high

Markets rose on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1 percent to a record high, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.7 percent and the Shanghai Composite jumped 1.8 percent.

Analysts were optimistic, with Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management, seeing “further upside for global equities in this environment” while Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors wrote that “December looks like it will be a very strong finish for 2020”.

However, with COVID-19 infections still soaring in the US and hospitalisations hitting a record high of nearly 96,000 on Tuesday, Credit Suisse’s chief US equity strategist Jonathan Golub suggested that investors wait until after December before putting more money into the market.

“They’re a reasonably decent headwind for things like Christmas sales, which are really important,” said Golub.

Markets fall after strong November gains

Markets fell on Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.0 percent and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.5 percent.

Despite the fall on Monday, the S&P 500 rose 10.8 percent in November, its biggest monthly gain since April.

“The length and strength of the current rally suggests to us that the market could be vulnerable to some pullback at these levels,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.

Also, the COVID-19 pandemic remains a concern after the US recorded 10,000 coronavirus deaths and over 1.1 million new cases last week. Hospitalised COVID-19 patients reached a record high of nearly 93,000 on Sunday, up 11 percent from the previous week.

The STOXX Europe 600 surged nearly 14 percent in November, its biggest monthly gain on record.

However, with the deadline for a deal between the UK and the European Union just five weeks away, Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA Europe, said that “time is fast running out and you have to wonder how long it can go on before we see a wobble in the markets”.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced Monday that the official manufacturing PMI for November was at 52.1, indicating a ninth consecutive month of expansion.