Thursday, 7 July 2016

Markets mixed as flattening yield curve trigger recession concerns

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent but the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.7 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.9 percent.

US crude oil rose 1.8 percent while the yield on the US 10-year note rose to 1.385 percent from 1.367 percent on Tuesday.

While bond yields rose on Wednesday, they remain near record lows, a sign to many that the economy may be close to a recession.

“Whenever we see the yield curve flatten like we are seeing right now, that usually signals a market that's anticipating a recession and further monetary stimulus from the central banks,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.

“Given the historical tendency of a very flat or inverted yield curve to precede a U.S. recession, the odds of the next economic downturn are rising,” wrote a team of Deutsche Bank analysts.

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