Friday, 1 July 2016

China stocks rise but interest rates may fall

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1 percent on Friday to complete a 2.7 percent rise for the week.

Despite the recovery in the stock market, China's bond traders are betting on more monetary stimulus. From Bloomberg:

Expectations a plunging euro and rising political uncertainty in Europe will hurt demand for Chinese products is boosting speculation the People’s Bank of China will take steps to ease monetary policy. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Standard Chartered Plc and Commerzbank AG all say the nation will probably lower banks’ reserve requirements as soon as July, while one-year interest-rate swaps, a gauge of rate expectations, fell the most last month since April 2015.

The latest data on China's economy have been mixed. The manufacturing PMI slipped to 50 in June from 50.1 in May but the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.7 from 53.1.

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