Saturday 28 August 2010

UK and US GDP revised in opposite directions

UK second quarter GDP growth has been revised up. Reuters reports:

Britain's economy grew at its fastest pace for nine years in the second quarter, an unexpected revision to official data showed on Friday, but economists said a sharp slowdown was still on the cards.

Strong construction activity caused the Office for National Statistics to boost its initial estimate of 1.1 percent GDP growth for the three months to June to 1.2 percent, against expectations for an unchanged reading.

In contrast, US second quarter GDP growth has been revised down. Bloomberg reports:

The economic recovery in the U.S. weakened in the second quarter more than previously estimated, highlighting the risks of a prolonged slackening in growth.

The world’s largest economy grew at a 1.6 percent annual pace, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and down from an estimate of 2.4 percent issued last month, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment improved slightly in August.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 68.9 in August from 67.8 the prior month. The index averaged 89 in the five years leading up to the recession that began December 2007. The gauge was projected to rise to 69.6, unchanged from a preliminary reading issued earlier this month, according to the median forecast of 65 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Investor sentiment, though, improved considerably on Friday. Again from Bloomberg:

Stocks and commodities surged while Treasuries retreated after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged to safeguard the recovery and economic growth slowed less than estimated in the second quarter.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.7 percent to 1,064.59 at the 4 p.m. close in New York, paring its third straight weekly decline to less than 0.7 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields, which slid to a 17-month low this week, surged 17 basis points to 2.65 percent. Oil rose for a third day, helping send the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities up 1.2 percent. The yen weakened against all 16 major counterparts as Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan planned to stem its rally.

Bernanke said the U.S. central bank will do all that it can to ensure a continuation of the recovery, including “unconventional measures.” The 1.6 percent growth in U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter surpassed the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey and tempered concern the economy will relapse into recession.

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