Tuesday 3 August 2010

Stocks surge as most manufacturing PMIs fall

The global economy may be slowing but that is not curbing risk appetite among investors. From Reuters:

Global stocks surged to a 2-1/2 month high and the euro hit a three-month high on Monday as better-than-expected growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector and encouraging corporate earnings spurred the appetite for risky assets.

The euro neared $1.32 for the first time since early May, with the single currency picking up steam after it broke a key technical level...

Crude oil prices rose above $81 a barrel for the first time since early May, boosted by the weakness in the U.S. dollar, the upbeat data as well as an increased possibility of a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic.

Gold prices fell and government bonds were pressured as the improved investor sentiment dented the bid for safe havens...

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 208.51 points, or 1.99 percent, at 10,674.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 24.24 points, or 2.20 percent, at 1,125.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 40.66 points, or 1.80 percent, at 2,295.36...

The MSCI world equity index rose 2.35 percent, reaching a two-and-a-half month high, while the Thomson Reuters global stock index gained 2.1 percent as investors built on last month's run-up. Emerging stocks rose 2.1 percent to a three-month high.

Bloomberg reports the better-than-expected economic data from the US on Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge dropped to 55.5 last month, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from 56.2 in June. Readings greater than 50 indicate growth. The group’s bookings gauge, considered a leading indicator, fell to a one-year low...

A report from the Commerce Department today also showed construction spending unexpectedly rose in June, boosted by a gain in government programs that made up for declines in private residential and commercial projects.

The 0.1 percent increase in outlays followed a revised 1 percent drop in May that was larger than previously estimated.

UK manufacturing also slowed, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) manufacturing PMI falling to 57.3 in July from 57.6 in June, but this was again better than forecasts for a reading of 57.0.

Manufacturing actually managed to accelerate in the supposedly-troubled euro area. From Bloomberg:

A gauge of manufacturing in the 16-nation euro region increased to 56.7 from 55.6 in the previous month, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s a three-month high and above an initial estimate of 56.5 released on July 22. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

However, the euro area was an exception among the world's biggest economies. AFP/CNA reports that China was also affected by the manufacturing slowdown.

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI, or purchasing managers index, fell to 49.4 last month from 50.4 in June -- the first time it dropped below the neutral 50 threshold since March 2009, the bank said...

A separate survey published by a government agency on Sunday showed manufacturing activity slowed to 51.2 last month from 52.1 in June.

Last week, Japan had reported that its manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low of 52.8 in July from 53.9 in June.

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