Monday 4 July 2005

Top stock market newsletters are bullish

According to MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert, the top US stock market newsletters are bullish.

In a recent article, he picked out nine newsletters that are top in market timing over the past 10 years. Every single one was bullish.

If you are thinking of going contrarian against this consensus, note that Hulbert also warns that the consensus among the ten worst performing market timing newsletters over the last decade is quite bearish.

"To be bearish yourself, therefore, you in effect have to bet that the last decade's worst are more likely to be right than the last decade's best," he wrote.

Or to put it another way, past performance may not be a good predictor of future performance, but you would probably at least want to think twice before betting against it.

As for me, I'll stick to watching the financial and economic indicators (see "Outlook for stocks and bonds may depend on PMI").

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