Monday, 23 May 2005

Inflation: Past the peak?

The macroblog focuses on inflation yesterday -- specifically, inflation modeling. This is topical, what with analysts having some trouble of late determining exactly where it is headed.

Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, wrote in Business Week:

In total, we suspect that we have now seen the peak in near-term inflation pressures in the U.S. economy, and the markets should prepare to enjoy some encouraging inflation reports over the coming months. The bond market has recently gained strength on "soft patch" talk as well as concerns over hedge-fund solvency. But the better reason for recent bond price strength may derive from the passage of the worst of the inflation news for the year.

Of course, analysts can be as fickle as the data they rely on. That is essentially the point of my latest commentary, "Economic indicators and stock markets change their minds".

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