Friday 27 May 2005

Economic data show upward bias, but excesses may be reversing

US real gross domestic product for the first quarter has been revised up to 3.5 percent.

In other US economic news, the Labor Department reported that initial unemployment insurance claims rose by 1,000 to 323,000 last week. The 4-week moving average rose by 500 to 330,500 from the previous week's revised average.

Meanwhile, there is possibly some more evidence that the soft patch in the global economy may be ending. Singapore's manufacturing output grew 13.4 percent on a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis, reversing falls in the previous three months.

Then again, maybe not.

Days of fast profits in China's property market could be over: analysts
Falling retail property prices in the country's commercial capital Shanghai mean fast and easy profits in China's red hot real estate market could be a thing of the past, analysts say.

Recent government-directed cooling measures have hit investors where it hurts most, with tumbling prices denting real estate revenues and possibly bankrupting smaller property developers in the months ahead.

Property transactions between late April and early May dropped sharply here in Shanghai, with residential sales alone down to 3.13 billion yuan (378 million dollars) from 7.75 billion the month before, official statistics show.

And if the following Associated Press article -- "'Aha!' moments hit future retirees" -- is any indication, a cooling of China's property market may be occurring at about the same time as Americans start raising their savings rates.

These may be indications that global economic excesses have begun to reverse.

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