India as No. 1

Everyone talks about the rise of China and asks when its economy will overtake the US economy.

However, Scott Sumner has gone one step further and asks when India will overtake China and become the biggest economy in the world. His answer:

Year: 2081

Workforce ratio: China will have 60% of India’s workforce.

Productivity ratio: India will have 60% of China’s worker productivity.

GDP ratio: 1:1

Contrary to the expectations of many, democracy has provided no net advantage to India relative to China. Rather, it is demographics that is about to provide India with a decisive advantage over its neighbour.