Thursday, 5 December 2019

Gundlach sees crisis for corporate bonds in next recession

Markets were mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.2 percent but the Nikkei 225 fell 1 percent.

US economic data on Wednesday were mixed.

ADP private sector employment report showed job growth of 67,000 in November, well below forecasts and the smallest increase since May.

Another report showed that the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index fell to 53.9 in November from 54.7 in October.

However, IHS Markit's services PMI showed a rise to 51.6 in November from 50.6 in October.

Nevertheless, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, thinks that a downturn is more a question of “when” than “if”.

Gundlach thinks that when the next downturn hits, there will be a crisis in the corporate bond market, with “en masse downgradings”, and recommended that “corporate bond exposure should be at absolute minimum levels right now”.

Gundlach also thinks that among stock markets, “when the next recession comes, the United States will get crushed, and it will not make it back to the highs that we've seen, that we're floating around right now, probably for the rest of my career”.

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