Tuesday 7 August 2018

Caution over stocks amid signs of trade war and extreme market valuation

While global stocks saw a mixed performance on Monday, the S&P 500 managed a gain of 0.4 percent.

Still, after a weekend editorial in China’s Global Times newspaper said the country was ready for a “protracted war” over trade, some analysts are sounding caution.

Diane Jaffee, senior portfolio manager at TCW, noted “signs that tariffs have moved from rhetoric into action and are impacting global supply chain”.

Meanwhile, William Delwiche, an investment strategist at Baird, said that “the technical indicators argue on the side of caution”

Indeed, some of the best stock market indicators are flashing warning signs, with the ratio of US total market cap to GDP, supposedly a favourite stock market valuation indicator of Warren Buffett, approaching 140 percent and a new record high.

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