Monday, 23 January 2017

As Trump era begins, S&P 500 at risk of falling

US stocks fell last week. The S&P 500 lost 0.2 percent for its second consecutive weekly decline.

Reuters cites history in saying that there could be more losses in the coming month.

For financial markets, the Trump era begins on Monday, and if history is any guide the following month should be a rocky one for Wall Street but positive for the dollar.

The S&P 500 has fallen a median 2.7 percent in the month after each new president has taken the keys to the White House since Herbert Hoover did so in January 1929, according to Reuters analysis.

Meanwhile, John Hussman, who has been warning of a weak US stock market ahead, notes even more negative signs in his latest article.

Last week, an unusual set of classifiers that we monitor raised red flags, with two of our three “crash signatures” now suggesting the likelihood of a market loss in excess of -25% in the months ahead (the last time these signatures were active was between April-October 2008). This would potentially represent the opening salvo of a more extended completion to the current market cycle.

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