Monday, 20 June 2016

No panic over Brexit

As the referendum on 23 June on the UK's secession from the European Union approaches, and despite the market volatility of the past week, analysts are not predicting anything dire for stock markets.

From Bloomberg:

Even as global markets teetered last week and polls showed more U.K. voters leaning toward leaving the trading bloc, securities firms surveyed by Bloomberg are predicting the outcome will be largely a non-issue for equities. They’ve left practically untouched predictions that European shares will rise almost 10 percent through the rest of the year.

It is a similar situation for the US stock market.

Citigroup’s Tobias Levkovich noted in a recent report: “With Europe directly accounting for 9% of S&P 500’s constituent sales, of which a good chunk comes from stable businesses in areas like food, drugs and beverages, a Brexit vote is unlikely to be disruptive.”

A recent FactSet report estimated that the overall S&P 500 index has a mere 2.9 percent sales exposure to the UK, with even the most exposed sector having 6 percent of sales coming from the UK.

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