Tuesday, 8 March 2016

No recession in 2016?

Markets were mixed on Monday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8 percent.

However, the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.3 percent and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.6 percent.

While most markets remain significantly off their highs, the recent rally has turned some analysts more optimistic.

For example, Tim Mullaney wrote that February's US employment report has "just about dispensed with the idea of a 2016 recession".

"[T]he correction was based on a series of gloom-and-doom scenarios that weren’t true, or aren’t likely," he said. "The jobs report was a nail in that argument’s coffin, and you can dance profitably on the recession of 2016’s grave."

Then again, employment is not generally considered a leading economic indicator, so with ten months to go this year, Mullaney is almost certainly too early in celebrating the avoidance of a recession in 2016.

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