Monday 2 November 2015

Stocks rally strongly on short-covering

Stocks had a strong October.

The S&P 500 rose 8.3 percent last month, the best monthly gain since 2011. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 8 percent.

However, John Hussman thinks that this rally was a "last gasp" of the bull market.

"Our own measures of market internals remain unfavorable, and trading volume has been persistently weak, suggesting that the rebound may be more reflective of short-covering than a resumption of the insistent yield-seeking speculation observed prior to mid-2014," he wrote.

Similarly, Paban Raj Pandey thinks that a decline in short interest has provided a "tailwind" for stocks but still thinks that the rally may not last.

"When it is all said and done, buyers need to be willing to put new money to work. That is what is lacking," he wrote. "Corporate buybacks may soon pick up, but equity flows and margin debt are not cooperating. Mid- and small-caps are severely lagging large-caps."

"Hardly a recipe for the continuation of a short squeeze," he added.

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