Henry Blodget at Business Insider thinks that US stocks are "frighteningly expensive and risky".
What my analysis is telling me is:
1) stocks are extremely expensive and will eventually revert toward historical means, probably via a sharp correction of 30% to 50%
2) long-term stock returns from today's level will be about 2% per year — nothing to write home about
High valuations and imminent monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve were two reasons given by Blodget in his above post for his bearish views.
And in a separate post, he wrote that margin debt is now higher than it was at the peak of the bull markets in 2000 and 2007.
That creates a risk that a correction in the market could turn into a crash.
No comments:
Post a Comment