Japan led, Europe lagged in first quarter

The major developed economies put up diverging performances in the first quarter of 2012.

The United States economy slowed in the first quarter, growing 0.5 percent from the previous quarter for an annualised rate of 2.2 percent. It had grown 0.7 percent -- 3.0 percent annualised -- in the fourth quarter.

Japan put up the best performance among the major developed economies, growing 1.0 percent in the first quarter after having stagnated in the fourth quarter.

Europe provided most of the laggards among the major developed economies in the first quarter.

Germany managed to grow 0.5 percent in the first quarter, rebounding from the 0.2 percent contraction in the fourth quarter.

However, France's economy stagnated in the first quarter after having grown 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

That was still better though than the United Kingdom and Italy, whose economies contracted by 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent respectively. Both of these economies are now in recession after two and three consecutive quarters of contraction respectively.

Percentage change in real GDP
	2011			2012
	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1
United States	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.5
Japan	-0.3	1.9	0.0	1.0
Germany	0.3	0.6	-0.2	0.5
France	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
United Kingdom	-0.1	0.6	-0.3	-0.2
Italy	0.3	-0.2	-0.7	-0.8

The pattern of growth among the major developed economies is not likely to change much in the months ahead.

In a report on 10 May, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said that the composite leading indicators for Japan and the US for March pointed to stronger expansion for these economies. The CLI for the UK also improved, indicating that its economy may turn around.

However, the CLI for the euro area as a whole stagnated. While the CLI for Germany was stable, the CLIs for France and Italy maintained declining trends, pointing to continued sluggish economic activity in the latter countries.

OECD composite leading indicators
	Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted			Change from previous month
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Jan	Feb	Mar
United States	100.9	101.1	101.3	0.3	0.2	0.2
Japan	100.7	100.9	101.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
Germany	99.2	99.3	99.3	0.0	0.0	0.0
France	99.7	99.7	99.6	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
United Kingdom	99.4	99.5	99.6	0.1	0.1	0.1
Italy	99.5	99.3	99.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2