Friday 21 October 2011

US leading index rises, eurozone consumer confidence falls

Economic data on Thursday were mostly positive in the US but less so in Europe.

In the US, existing home sales fell 3.0 percent in September but the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2 percent last month, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's business activity index jumped to 8.7 in October from minus 17.5 in September and initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to 403,000 last week.

In the UK, retail sales rose 0.6 percent in September while gross mortgage lending rose 4 percent on the year in September. However, consumer confidence fell for a fourth consecutive month in September, Nationwide's consumer confidence index dropping to 45 from 48 in August.

Consumer confidence is also weak in the euro area. The consumer confidence index fell to minus 19.9 in October from minus 19.1 in September.

Confidence is likely to remain weak in Europe as long as its debt problems are not resolved. Thursday, though, brought rumour of yet another plan to resolve the crisis. From Bloomberg:

European governments may unleash as much as 940 billion euros ($1.3 trillion) to fight the debt crisis by combining the temporary and planned permanent rescue funds, two people familiar with the discussions said.

Negotiations over pairing the two funds as of mid-2012 accelerated this week after efforts to leverage the temporary fund ran into European Central Bank opposition and provoked a clash between Germany and France, said the people, who declined to be identified because a decision rests with political leaders.

That news apparently helped lift investors' confidence, US stocks and the euro recovering from earlier losses to finish the day with gains.

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