Wednesday 21 September 2011

Markets and economic data mixed, IMF sees danger for global economy

Investors in Europe shrugged off the Italian credit rating downgrade to push the STOXX Europe 600 up 1.8 percent on Tuesday. US stocks, though, finished the day in negative territory. Bloomberg reports:

U.S. stocks fell, erasing a 1.4 percent rally by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid concern international officials won’t make a decision on Greece’s next aid payment until October...

The S&P 500 lost 0.2 percent to 1,202.09 at 4 p.m. New York time. The difference between two- and 30-year Treasury yields fell to 304 basis points amid speculation the Federal Reserve will increase holdings of longer maturities. Credit-default swaps on Italy jumped 25 basis points to a record 514 basis points after S&P cut the nation’s rating. Oil added 1.4 percent.

Economic reports on Tuesday were mixed.

In the US, housing starts fell 5.0 percent in August but building permits rose 3.2 percent. This follows a report on Monday that the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index had decreased to 14 in September from 15 in August.

In Japan, the coincident composite index fell 0.3 point to 107.1 in July but the leading index rose 2.0 points to 104.6.

In Germany, investor confidence fell to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in September, with the ZEW index falling to minus 43.3 from minus 37.6 in August.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF says that the global economy is entering a "dangerous new phase". It forecasts that global growth will moderate to about 4 percent through 2012, from over 5 percent in 2010, with the advanced economies growing at 1½ percent in 2011 and 2 percent in 2012. It added that the "risks are clearly to the downside".

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