Tuesday, 12 April 2011

IMF sees global recovery gaining strength

The IMF has released its latest World Economic Outlook.

From the executive summary of the report:

The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Developing economies, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, have also resumed fast and sustainable growth. Rising food and commodity prices pose a threat to poor households, adding to social and economic tensions, notably in the Middle East and North Africa. Oil price increases since January 2011 and information on supply, including on spare capacity, suggest that the disruptions so far would have only mild effects on economic activity. An earthquake in Japan has exacted a terrible human toll. Its macroeconomic impact is projected to be limited, although uncertainty remains elevated. Overall, with the recovery stronger on the one hand but oil supply growth lower on the other, projections for global real GDP growth in 2011–12 are little changed from the January 2011 WEO Update. But downside risks have risen.

Some GDP projections in the report:

 Year over year percent change
World output-
  Advanced economies-
    United States-
    Euro area-
  Emerging economies2.

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