Wednesday 28 April 2010

Markets overwhelmed by credit rating downgrades

US economic data on Tuesday were positive. Bloomberg reports:

Consumers in the U.S. turned more optimistic in April as the growing economy raised hopes jobs will become available.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 57.9, exceeding all forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since Lehman Brothers Inc. collapsed in September 2008, according to data from the New York-based private research group. The measure averaged 97 during the last expansion...

Another report showed home prices climbed less than forecast, a sign the housing recovery will take time to develop. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities rose 0.6 percent in February from the same month last year. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 1.3 percent advance.

Market sentiment, in contrast, was very negative. Again from Bloomberg:

Stocks tumbled, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling the most since February, and the dollar and Treasuries rose as credit-rating downgrades of Greece and Portugal fueled concern debt-laden nations are moving closer to default. Greek, Portuguese and Irish bonds sank.

The S&P 500 lost 2.3 percent at 4 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 3.1 percent, the most since November, and the euro dropped below $1.32 for the first time since April 2009. Yields on 10-year Treasuries tumbled 12 basis points to 3.68 percent. Greek two-year note yields jumped to a record of almost 19 percent and Portugal’s jumped to 5.7 percent as credit-default swaps on Europe debt surged to the highest ever. Oil sank 2.1 percent, while gold rallied 0.7 percent...

S&P lowered Greece’s credit rating to BB+ from BBB+ and warned that bondholders could recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if the country restructures its debt. The downgraded marked the first time a euro member has lost investment grade rating since the currency’s 1999 debut. S&P also reduced Portugal by two steps to A- from A+.

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