Tuesday, 1 December 2009

Markets recover amid positive economic data

Predictably, the Dubai stock market plunged on Monday. However, most of the rest of the world appear to have settled down from last week's turbulence. From Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks rose, extending a monthly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as concern eased over a possible default by Dubai World. Oil rallied as a British yacht crew was seized by Iran, while aluminum and zinc led industrial metals higher. Treasuries were little changed.

The S&P 500 added 0.4 percent to 1,095.63 at 4:10 p.m. in New York, as Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led financial shares to the steepest advance among 10 groups. U.S. equities erased losses in the final hour as Dubai World said it is in “constructive” initial talks with banks to restructure about $26 billion in debt. The Dollar Index, which gauges the U.S. currency against six major trading partners, lost 0.3 percent and crude oil climbed 1.6 percent.

Economic reports on Monday were generally positive.

Canada's economy returned to growth in the third quarter. Bloomberg reports:

Canada’s economy grew for the first time in four quarters in the July-through-September period, signaling the country’s first recession since 1992 has ended.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 0.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a 1 percent annualized gain, based on the median of 19 responses. The second-quarter decrease, initially reported at 3.4 percent, was revised to a 3.1 percent annualized drop.

India's economy accelerated in the third quarter. AFP/CNA reports:

India reported its best growth figures in 18 months on Monday as government spending and record low interest rates helped Asia's third-largest economy rebound from the global financial crisis.

The 7.9-per cent expansion in the quarter to September from a year earlier shattered market forecasts and prompted a leading government advisory panel to say India would hike its growth estimate for the financial year to March 2010.

Some indicators in the US are also pointing to an acceleration in economic activity. From Bloomberg:

Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in November as orders climbed, signaling the economic recovery will carry through into 2010.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its barometer rose to 56.1, the highest level since August 2008, from 54.2 the prior month. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Milwaukee and Texas also showed gains in manufacturing, other reports showed.

Meanwhile, in the euro area, inflation is back. Bloomberg reports:

European consumer prices increased for the first time in seven months in November led by energy costs as the economy recovered from the worst slump since World War II.

Prices in the 16-nation euro region rose 0.6 percent from a year earlier after falling 0.1 percent in October, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had projected a gain of 0.4 percent, the median of 30 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

1 comment:

Steven said...

In my view the US government's actions (and other governments that have followed in their footsteps) in their attempts to "improve" the economy is very irresponsible and wreckless. It has wasted trillions of dollars bailing out creditors and shareholders of failed institutions with broken business models rather than addressing the structural flaws in the system of too much debt. And this is going to lead to massive problems down the road with regard to our currency and interest rates, in my opinion. And I think that the gold price breaking out to a new high is a strong indication of the reduction in faith and confidence that people have in governments and their fiat currencies. I recently read a good article on this at Gold Price Cheaper Now than at $300 - Hathaway that discusses the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policies in order to try to prevent any sort of deflation from occurring and to try to reflate assets prices. There are also many more articles here that I think are very helpful for any investor to read because they help to explain the investment implications for the dollar, the gold price, and gold mining companies who I believe will continue to benefit from central banks' inflationary programs.

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